Search found 149 matches

by weathergasm
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 57195

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

I for one am going to assume any storms that develop will stick to the ranges. Latest sounding for Melbourne indicates more stable conditions than yesterday.
by weathergasm
Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 57195

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

For much of coastal NSW this event is pretty much locked in, but for us Victorians it is a much more uncertain event (looking at the synoptics). Curious to see how this one pans out but it looks like east and northeast parts of the state are in with the best shot at this stage.
by weathergasm
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020
Replies: 180
Views: 32455

Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

If I had to guess at this stage, I’d be surprised if Melbourne got to 10mm today. The cold front is knocking on the city’s door right now and it’s hard to see how once the front passes much rain will will eventuate.
by weathergasm
Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020
Replies: 180
Views: 32455

Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

BOM seem to think the system will peter out fairly significantly by the time it passes over the ranges to the east of Melbourne. That said, there remains a fairly incredible amount of moisture for this system to draw on and it cannot be ruled out that the system will have retained a lot of its stren...
by weathergasm
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

The arrival of the monsoon on the mainland a few weeks back really changed the game. Moisture availability shot up very quickly for large swathes of the country. Just goes to show the impact the delaying effect of the strong +IOD had - I’m glad it’s finally gone. As with every storm event, some area...
by weathergasm
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Just some moderate drizzle here in Box Hill today. A little bit boring but after yesterday’s cracker of a storm I can’t complain.
by weathergasm
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:46 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Seeing the odd anvil crawler here in Box Hill. What a day!
by weathergasm
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Very, very glad to be wrong. Got absolutely pelted with 10 cent sized hail here in Box Hill for about 10 minutes. Spectacular.
by weathergasm
Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Not looking good for Melbourne at this early stage. Sea breeze has come in and the trough appears to be in east Central.

STW issued lends credence to the above - the warning area is pretty far to the east of Melbourne. Things could change of course, but I’m skeptical
by weathergasm
Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Latest Melbourne Skew-T indicates Total Totals of 51 and a Lifted Index of -4.8, so very clearly a big jump in instability from yesterday (when the respective values were 40 and -0.2). That said, the proximity of the trough to Melbourne makes me worry a bit. It could very well move over us before pe...
by weathergasm
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

I think it’s highly unlikely the sea breeze is going to moderate to an extent that would allow those storms to creep into the suburbs. Today was always a very slight chance for storms in Melbourne, and once that sea breeze establishes itself it really kills off any chances for storms within its marg...
by weathergasm
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Somehow posted this twice, see below
by weathergasm
Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 63109

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Edit: Looks very marginal for Melbourne airport at the time the balloon went up - but things can change. Yeah, my interpretation of the ol’ Skew-T is basic at best (I just look at the TT and LI values on the top right lol) but both indicate only somewhat unstable conditions. Time to play the waitin...
by weathergasm
Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020
Replies: 109
Views: 19558

Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Even though the major climate drivers are neutral, there is a time lag of course before the effects become apparent. Yep, atmospheric inertia is a real thing. That said, the latest 4 day synoptic chart on the BOM website shows the monsoon trough finally making landfall in a line from Broome to Darw...
by weathergasm
Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Dec 23-31 2019 - Warming up with a strong front to end the Year
Replies: 136
Views: 24188

Re: VIC - Dec 23-31, 2019 Warming up with a strong front to end the Year?

Long story short is we need that monsoon to kick off just as much as Darwin does (if not more). The absence of that tropical moisture being advected down here is really being sorely missed this spring/summer.
by weathergasm
Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Potential record heat: December 15-20 2019
Replies: 202
Views: 27846

Re: VIC - Potential record heat: December 15-20 2019

Very light northeasterly winds here in Box Hill - definite smoke haze in the air.
by weathergasm
Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Potential record heat: December 15-20 2019
Replies: 202
Views: 27846

Re: VIC - Potential record heat: December 15-20 2019

I will never understand people who actually enjoy this interminably hot, bone dry, cloudless, featureless weather. It sucks so badly and is just so, so boring.
by weathergasm
Sun Dec 15, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Potential record heat: December 15-20 2019
Replies: 202
Views: 27846

Re: Potential record heat: December 15-20

Summer of 2010/2011, please come back. All is forgiven.
by weathergasm
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Near Stationary, sharpening LWT 26 Nov - 2 Dec
Replies: 75
Views: 14112

Re: Near Stationary, sharpening LWT 26 Nov - 2 Dec

I’m perfectly okay with the cool weather but this wind is driving me crazy. Looks like the next few days are going to be gusty too.