I for one am going to assume any storms that develop will stick to the ranges. Latest sounding for Melbourne indicates more stable conditions than yesterday.

For much of coastal NSW this event is pretty much locked in, but for us Victorians it is a much more uncertain event (looking at the synoptics). Curious to see how this one pans out but it looks like east and northeast parts of the state are in with the best shot at this stage.

If I had to guess at this stage, I’d be surprised if Melbourne got to 10mm today. The cold front is knocking on the city’s door right now and it’s hard to see how once the front passes much rain will will eventuate.

BOM seem to think the system will peter out fairly significantly by the time it passes over the ranges to the east of Melbourne. That said, there remains a fairly incredible amount of moisture for this system to draw on and it cannot be ruled out that the system will have retained a lot of its stren...

The arrival of the monsoon on the mainland a few weeks back really changed the game. Moisture availability shot up very quickly for large swathes of the country. Just goes to show the impact the delaying effect of the strong +IOD had - I’m glad it’s finally gone. As with every storm event, some area...

Just some moderate drizzle here in Box Hill today. A little bit boring but after yesterday’s cracker of a storm I can’t complain.

Seeing the odd anvil crawler here in Box Hill. What a day!

Very, very glad to be wrong. Got absolutely pelted with 10 cent sized hail here in Box Hill for about 10 minutes. Spectacular.

I would love to be wrong:D

Not looking good for Melbourne at this early stage. Sea breeze has come in and the trough appears to be in east Central.

STW issued lends credence to the above - the warning area is pretty far to the east of Melbourne. Things could change of course, but I’m skeptical

Latest Melbourne Skew-T indicates Total Totals of 51 and a Lifted Index of -4.8, so very clearly a big jump in instability from yesterday (when the respective values were 40 and -0.2). That said, the proximity of the trough to Melbourne makes me worry a bit. It could very well move over us before pe...

I think it’s highly unlikely the sea breeze is going to moderate to an extent that would allow those storms to creep into the suburbs. Today was always a very slight chance for storms in Melbourne, and once that sea breeze establishes itself it really kills off any chances for storms within its marg...

Somehow posted this twice, see below

Edit: Looks very marginal for Melbourne airport at the time the balloon went up - but things can change. Yeah, my interpretation of the ol’ Skew-T is basic at best (I just look at the TT and LI values on the top right lol) but both indicate only somewhat unstable conditions. Time to play the waitin...

Even though the major climate drivers are neutral, there is a time lag of course before the effects become apparent. Yep, atmospheric inertia is a real thing. That said, the latest 4 day synoptic chart on the BOM website shows the monsoon trough finally making landfall in a line from Broome to Darw...

Long story short is we need that monsoon to kick off just as much as Darwin does (if not more). The absence of that tropical moisture being advected down here is really being sorely missed this spring/summer.

Very light northeasterly winds here in Box Hill - definite smoke haze in the air.

I will never understand people who actually enjoy this interminably hot, bone dry, cloudless, featureless weather. It sucks so badly and is just so, so boring.

Summer of 2010/2011, please come back. All is forgiven.

I’m perfectly okay with the cool weather but this wind is driving me crazy. Looks like the next few days are going to be gusty too.