Search found 149 matches

by weathergasm
Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 5152

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

To me way of thinking, it’s all prelude this time of year. I’m just waiting for the monsoon trough to hit the mainland, that’s when significant tropical moisture is readily advected our way and we can begin tallying some real storm days.
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 5152

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Fairly iffy instability around Melbourne according the most recent Skew-T, I’d expect these thundery showers on the radar to collapse very quickly once the sun gets a bit lower.
by weathergasm
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 5152

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
by weathergasm
Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9321

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

I got 40mm here in Box Hill, which is about 10mm more than I predicted at the start of the thread. It’s lovely to have that drenching overnight rain hitting the roof and windows as you’re sleeping.

Also got one crack of thunder this morning.
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9321

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

It seems to me nothing much is expected to happen until late tonight, when moderate rain should set in for the Melbourne metro area. Seems to mostly clear by Saturday afternoon. I wouldn’t put money on heavy rain or thunderstorms, it’s not that type of system. At least, not for non-elevated central ...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9321

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

I’ve seen some model outputs indicating this event will be focused in the north and east of the state - will assume moderate falls (30mm total for Friday and Saturday?) for Melbourne at this point, the real action looks to be happening elsewhere.
by weathergasm
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9321

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Maybe this is the event that breaks the spell of somewhat (but not entirely) disappointing events for the Melbourne metro area recently. I personally won’t believe it until I see it on radar, but looking forward to see how it pans out.👍
by weathergasm
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7308

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

I get being disappointed by forecasts that don’t turn out the way you want them to, but if you want certainty out of a hobby maybe start growing bonsai or something, because following the weather clearly isn’t for you😂 I myself read these threads to figure out when I should be on heightened alert fo...
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7308

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

The weather is difficult to predict, guy. Particularly the track and speed of low pressure systems. The BOM can’t just look at what the model ensemble is telling them will happen and say “well, the last few times it said Melbourne would receive 25mm it didn’t happen so let’s just cut the forecast ra...
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7308

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

Substantial downgrade in the BOM’s rainfall forecast for Melbourne tomorrow, now forecasting 3-10mm with ‘moderate’ falls predicted for the outer eastern suburbs. Up until 4:20pm the forecast was for 15-25mm, if I recall correctly. The placement and timing of these lows just haven’t seemed to favour...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7308

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

my point was more that everyone on here gets excited predicting storms/weather that never eventuates, looking at models saying there are (that's pretty much what keeps this page going) Okay, but you have to consider that in the context of Melbourne’s actual climate. If storms happened every time th...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7308

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to! Complaining doesn’t change anything either. Melbourne has a temperate o...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 16826

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

113mm at the Darwin AWS in the last 24 hours. Looks like the beginning of a cracker of a wet season.
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:22 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 16826

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Plains just west of Melbourne and Gippsland will struggle Really getting tired of seeing those types of frustrating predictions HB. :( Hope your wrong. ;) I mean, if you live in Caroline Springs you live in one of the driest areas in the state. Missing out on rain events like this is kinda par for ...
by weathergasm
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Inland Trough & Tropical Infeed - 17th - 21st Sept
Replies: 62
Views: 6985

Re: Inland Trough & Tropical Infeed - 17th - 21st Sept

Very disappointing spring to date. Hopefully things improve during October. It’s only been spring for three weeks, let’s all settle down a bit. As for La Niña, I’m waiting for the monsoon trough to appear in the Southern Hemisphere before I make any judgements on whether it’s a ‘fizzer’ or not. Way...
by weathergasm
Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Windy with a late change: September 2-7
Replies: 65
Views: 5424

Re: Windy with a late change: September 2-7

I’m not expecting any La Niña influence until the monsoon trough starts edging towards Australia. It’s at that point we’ll start seeing some of that tropical moisture we’re waiting for.
by weathergasm
Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm and windy ahead of a late cool change: August 29-31
Replies: 27
Views: 2621

Re: Becoming warm and windy ahead of a late cool change: August 29-31

It’s much too early to say the developing La Niña and negative IOD is a dud. We’re not even out of winter yet - when the monsoon trough starts to migrate into the Southern Hemisphere we’ll have a much better idea of its impact, and that’s still at least around six weeks away. That said, the BOM is f...
by weathergasm
Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24
Replies: 163
Views: 14316

Re: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24

Absolutely feral winds here in Box Hill with the passage of the front. Trees bending over sideways, lights intermittently going out. A little spooky how violent it was.
by weathergasm
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 57194

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Except to bake as the country did in December you need the input of climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which have been exacerbated by human-induced climate change. So those people at the cafe may not be ill-informed at all. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00638.1 htt...
by weathergasm
Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 57194

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

They’re actually forecasting storms from “early” morning (tending severe towards the afternoon), so to my mind that means we should start seeing development of showers any time between 12-6am👌