Search found 3272 matches

by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Closing in on 30mm here for this arvo. MTD 115mm which is about 40mm above average. Our summer to date total is almost right on average, after the dismal December :D Our local AWS is on nearly 125mm so doing even better. Should kick on for another 12-18 hours. Messy system so picking details is hard...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Some insane falls showing up on the eastern side of the Dandenong. Running from Belgrave to Mt Dandenong there is a band of 40-60mm falls, with a peak atm of 75mm near Olinda. That all fallen since noon. Must be some significant flash flooding going on atm. We are getting the heavy edges here with 2...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Flooding rain showing up in West Gippsland now. 84mm near Sale. This low is really starting to crank, though being slow moving the rain is training over the same locations.
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Big hailstorm in Canberra - extensive damage to cars and broken windows Friends near treasury next to old Parliament House reckon ever car in the carpark is wrecked. Hail photos showing golf ball or bigger. Heavy here, but in the edge of it. 9mm so far. Gauges just to the east of us are showing 20 ...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Torrential but small cells across the Dandenong setting up some insane rainfall gradients. 6mm here, but 26mm just 3 km down the road in Belgrave. Our local AWS which is about 1.5km away has had 12mm. Constant rumbles, some within about 500m shaking the windows. So hard to pick what happens next, ju...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Big booming thunder here and big rain drops just started. Mean looking band running up through the eastern burbs. Already been 10-15mm in quick time just south of here. Kind of band that could easily drop 25-50mm if you get under it for long. EDIT> Quick fire 3mm here. Main cell sat about 5km south ...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Heavy rain currently falling over the Mt Buffalo fire grounds. Hope it keeps going for a few hours. That fire has potential to do a lot of damage, so be so good if it can get a good soaking. Hard to pick which rain band will reach here first. Got it approaching from the north, east and south. The ma...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:27 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Amazing system out there with showers and storms spinning around multiple centres. The main circulation that will come into play will be just east of Melbourne mid arvo. You can see this nicely at 850hPa. Heavy rain will wrap in underneath into central and west central. Some big falls next door to s...
by hillybilly
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Quick 7mm here with hail to about a cm. Glad not to get the big stuff. Just passed our monthly average with 80mm MTD :D Northern Dandenong did very well with falls around 20-25mm near Kalorama, eastern side of Mt Dandenong and Mt Evelyn. Falls are quite patchy with only a couple of mms south of here...
by hillybilly
Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Few 20-30mm falls showing up already in the Yarra Valley. Looks to be about fifteen minutes away here. Rumbles are booming to the north :D

Might put the car in the garage :?
by hillybilly
Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Under the anvil from the storm entering the Yarra Valley. Just hearing the first rumbles. The bigger cells are tapping the shear and look to be rotating cyclonicly into the sea breeze. Lots of chunky Cu sat under the anvil so firing nicely. EDIT> now getting big booms almost continuous to our north ...
by hillybilly
Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Not looking good for Melbourne at this early stage. Sea breeze has come in and the trough appears to be in east Central. STW issued lends credence to the above - the warning area is pretty far to the east of Melbourne. Things could change of course, but I’m skeptical Nah, all good. Steering is out ...
by hillybilly
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Models not much changed today. Big wet slow moving storms. They look to peak in central areas. The trough will sit somewhere near a line from Swan Hill to Colac. Activity will be east of this line, and probably east of a line from about Geelong to Ballarat. Of course, could wiggle left or right. It’...
by hillybilly
Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

James wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:53 pm
is the sea breeze going to drop?...so far but so close those storms to the east!
All over. Just not enough northerly in the synoptic flow today. Tomorrow is a lot better.

EC holding so all lined up now which is nice one day out :D
by hillybilly
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Cells bubbling away just east of here. If the sea breeze drops out they will jump west. GFS has a big upgrade. CMC and UK are also very wet, with 30-60mm central and falls approaching 200mm in the south facing hills in Gippsland. This event could be very big. It’s very rare to get a strong slow movi...
by hillybilly
Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-24th Jan 2020

Unbelievable divergence for us between 18Z GFS, and 18Z ACCESS and EC so close to D-Day(s). The former gives us about 10mm, the others 50-70mm :o . Btw I've extended the date range out to Friday, as there doesn't appear to be any obvious break in the wet weather potential until then; mods obviously...
by hillybilly
Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

First day of round two for this system. The upper trough is building to our west and the surface trough is deepening and moving west. It will become unstable across all eastern areas and instability will edge into central and north central. Currently looks like the shower/storms will make it about e...
by hillybilly
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Foggy cool morning here in the Nongs. Not a lot today, with showers coming in from the southeast so will mainly be the Otways, Gippsland hills and west central ranges. Trough deepens through the weekend. Saturday sees pretty sparse activity, with Sunday looking very good for more big wet storms. A c...
by hillybilly
Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Fog and drizzle has cleared back home. Ended on 25mm so more than I expected coming in to yesterday. MTD about 1mm off our average so tracking very well. Day or two of not much ahead of a warm/hot and unstable weekend. Bit hard to pick the details, but showers/storms tending to rain across Sat/Sun/M...
by hillybilly
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:06 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 378
Views: 14671

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Super thick fog here this morning and heavy drizzle. 18.4mm in the gauge. Gotta be a good chance to crack 20mm from here. Pretty unlucky here in the end as we would have got double that if the development had of occurred 5km north/south/east or west. I do wonder if the radar was missing a fair bit o...