Search found 3916 matches

by hillybilly
Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:13 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 15
Views: 309

Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Progs are producing a big rainfall event with an easterly dip deepening and forming a closed low. The associated trough moves across Vic during Friday, with widespread rain and storms. Most models showing falls peaking at 50-100mm, though don’t agree on the details. Only model not so keen is GFS whi...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Drizzle and fog through to about 3pm and then cleared suddenly. Finished on 31mm :D Check out today’s weather here. Not sure I’ve seen that before :o https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EspItROU4AE_tkA?format=jpg&name=large Substantial rain and storm event in the progs for Friday and Saturday. EC and UK whi...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:57 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Just passed an inch :D Still drizzling, but lighter now. Most the southern Nongs have had 20-25mm, while the northern part seems to have missed out a bit with more like 10-20mm. Few spot falls out through the Yarra Valley which got the best of the storms showing 30-40mm. Having a great month here wi...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:13 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Still raining in FC, and city adding up nicely which is good given it’s been pretty lean there so far for the month. Was looking like a dud when I woke at 5:30, but now gone passed what I was expecting last night :D Bit patchy though, and another fail for much of north central. Btw substantial secon...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:34 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Just cracked another cell. Peak rainfall rate of 80mm/hr. Just on 20mm now. Happy - garden watered and tanks back to full :D Not sure why the local AWS is a few mms behind me, though might be legitimate as the nearest private gauge near it has just 13mm, so strong gradients. Up here in the Nongs, th...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:37 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Missed that solid band of storms that passed about 10km north/east of here, but scored a series of small cells which trained over the southern Dandenong. Just passed 13mm so far. Still raining steadily, despite the radar :?: Had a couple of rumbles in the last 10 minutes, Patchy around here with wea...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:38 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Back in Ferny Creek after a couple of warm ones on the coast. Competely surprised me when the change went through Walkerville on about 11:30am. Was thinking perhaps 4pm. Trough was very broad and a bubble high developed in cooler air which I’d guess was a sea breeze that strengthened and became the ...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:53 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Stinker of a night. Min of 27C back home in FC, while dipped to 20C here in Walkerville early am, but been warming up since and now 30C. Lots of cloud that will take the edge off things, but will still be a stinker. Change looks to be in Melbourne around 5pm give or take. Rain looks pretty good, tho...
by hillybilly
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:42 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Nice day on the beach at Walkeville, but geez it warmed up quickly as you went inland. Was 24C on the beach, 29C at our place 1km inland and mid 30s a few kms inland from there :o 33C back home in FC. Sticker of a night before a hot day. Cloud incoming and gusty winds will make it quite unpleasant. ...
by hillybilly
Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:52 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Beaut day in the south yesterday. Spent much of it on the beach :D Waves were big, though, driven by the big low south of NZ atm. Quite a few drownings in recent days across the southeast :( Not good. Bit hard to know how these waves compare to other events in summer, but the mix of beautiful weathe...
by hillybilly
Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:49 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Progs are jumpy and spraying but the big picture looks very hopeful. I tend to favour EC unless it’s an outlier (it’s the best weather model) and it’s been quite stable and tends to avoid the ridiculous falls and gradients in some of the other models. It’s tending to show 5-25mm Tuesday and 20-60mm ...
by hillybilly
Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:12 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Nice but hazy 23C in the Nongs. Now down on the coast where it’s humid and hazy. Clouds are sat low on Wilson Prom, and almost looks like drizzle down there. Nice day tomorrow ahead of the first burst of summer for a while. Sunday’s looking a bit hotter, Monday perhaps a bit cooler. Monday looks qui...
by hillybilly
Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:19 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

First hot one in the Nongs with 28C on Thursday. Friday and Saturday look similar. Stinkers Sunday and Monday. Rainfall still looks promising. Prefrontal on Monday looks unpleasant, with high 30s to low 40s and gusty winds :?
by hillybilly
Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:23 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Progs wiggling, but still lots of potential. Before that two HOT days on Sunday and Monday. Sunday more in the west, and Monday for areas a bit further east. Starting to look like we could well see low 40s in the western burbs of Melbourne :( Quite gusty winds ahead of the front, though humidity sta...
by hillybilly
Wed Jan 20, 2021 7:19 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Big event creeping into the progs, with them all showing locally 50-100mm next week. Surprising consistency, though that might change.

Weekend doesn’t look too windy which is good with the heat.
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3569

Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Long lived and fairly slow moving system with heat building the next few days ahead of a scorching Sunday. The new week then brings increasing tropical moisture with the potential for showers and storms to be widespread and heavy. Lots of uncertainty on the details, though heat looks to be locked in...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:18 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

MTD - 4mm. Nothing here for the past 2 weeks. We might get something next week from the remnants of a possible WA cyclone. Probably just dribs and drabs. That sucks strato. You’ve really been in the wrong spot over and over this past month. Hope it changes soon. Final cold one here. Max of 14.6C. W...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:22 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

2.4mm in the gauge this morning. Looks like a nice day ahead. Event tipped over 40mm and MTD 105mm. Doing very well, with the recent event.
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Wierd day here. Started cold, foggy and drizzly, sun came out and it spiked to near 20C and was quite warm and sticky then on sunset the fog and drizzle rolled in again. It’s been quite heavy the past 30 minutes. There is a sneaky change through tonight which will pile moist swly then southerly flow...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:22 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

That's an amazing amount of rain HillyBilly. How far are you from the Melbourne CBD? As the crow flies just over 30km. We average double the city, but in the past 12 months have seen nearly triple. You can see the gradient on the deciles at http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/agcd/rainfall/decile/1...