Search found 3757 matches

by hillybilly
Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Another day of frustration here with storms wrapping under us in an easterly only to travel north to our west. Like that never happens :o (well not what I can recall).

Had one brief thundery shower but nothing in the gauge.
by hillybilly
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Nice fog this morning and very damp under the trees. Looked like a few mms of drips to add to the 2mm from yesterday's showers. Warm a muggy out with storms going up to me east. They are being steered in from the east so might get here - or not. Thinking it will be close. Tomorrow is kinda similar. ...
by hillybilly
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

still yet to hear a rumble of thunder here so far this season We had lots of rumbles from the Bayswater cell. Decent booms, though no rain :( Got a heavy shower this arvo, with 2mm. No thunder but felt close. Wet 24 hours coming up for much of northern Vic. The low will stay a bit north for most of...
by hillybilly
Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Trough over eastern Vic and trough over western Vic today. Complex set up with lots of showers and storm, though light wind will tend to keep them away from the coastal fringe. Expect them to fire from early arvo. Could get 0.2 or 20mm here. Looks better on the ranges to the east. Repeat on Friday. ...
by hillybilly
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Got a great little storm 5-10km northwest of here, but not a drop of rain. Lots of rumbles. Local falls to near 10mm around Ringwood and Bayswater.

Tomorrow looks like a repeat, as does Friday.

Mini burst of heat to start next week. Gonna be a bit of a shock.
by hillybilly
Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:48 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Today looks promising for a break in our storm drough. Widespread storms central through east. Some will sneak into the west. Weak steering, so will be slow moving and pulse. LI drop to around -4 at a minimum so very unstable. On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though ...
by hillybilly
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Had a few fading convective showers here this arvo. Now we’ve got three days of showers and storms ahead. Looks best away from the coast, so might be a bit iffy in the Melbourne area. The steering aloft is from the northwest, but low level winds tend to be easterly going more southerly as the sea br...
by hillybilly
Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2615

Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Another week of unstable conditions, but this one looks like focusing more on the north and east. A trough will slowly deepen over us, with a low forming over NSW. This slowly shifts southeast eventually entering the Tasman near Gabo Island. Showers on most days in the north and east, extending more...
by hillybilly
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Two Max’s of 9C. Feels especially cold after a few milder humid days.

Messy week of weather coming up with easterlies dominating. Heavy falls in the east, and to our north. Dredges for rest of Vic, with showers a chance most arvos.
by hillybilly
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Fresh morning out there 🥶3C with a gusty southerly. Picked up another 2mm overnight. Bit of snow in the alps, though not a lot of moisture with the cold air. Looking at temps snow line is probably around 800m, so flurries not out of the question around Macedon, above Trentham etc. not unusual to see...
by hillybilly
Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

10mm more in the gauge post 9am so cracked the 50mm (total is 52mm). Great fall. Not enough to cause problems, but deep soaking which will keep it nice and damp now for the rest of spring (unless November is a shocker). Went for a walk in the local national park and lots of water in the seeps and cr...
by hillybilly
Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Torrential here the last 15 minutes. Now up to 42mm. Can we crack 50mm by 9am ? :o Thinking we will just run out of time, but get there by 10am. Creeks our here are rising fast. Suspect Dandenong Creek will be in flood soon (as forecast). Wouldn’t be a good idea to swim in the bay this arvo ;) EC ha...
by hillybilly
Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Must admit I had gone off this one yesterday going by the radar, satellite and model update but it has delivered. 30mm so far and pouring out there. Thick rain (as some of us call it in the Nongs), with lots of drops. Garden is back to a lake flowing towards the bay (we are on a big hill with volcan...
by hillybilly
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Very nice blob on the radar north of Adelaide currently. That'd be nice down here. We're getting very light rain that has dried up on the pavement a couple of times. Still hopeful for an average amount. And the satellite images do look impressive Some big falls on the backside of the Flinders. Spot...
by hillybilly
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:18 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Warm humid one here but murk killing convection chances. Been raining lightly but just 0.2mm in the gauge. Complex system with one low near Melbourne and another near Port Augusta. Expecting heavy falls next 24 hours over the northeast. As you head west it will thin out. Could get anywhere between 1...
by hillybilly
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

6-12 hours out and still a pretty frustrating split on the models which range from about 20 to about 80mm here. Looks like the first band of rain passes mainly along the west coast into Bass Strait. Mid to late afternoon a large area of rain with some embed storms develop across the eastern half of ...
by hillybilly
Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Usual prog wiggle continues. Currently totals here for the weekend range from about 25mm in the EC to near 100mm in the UK, ACCESS and German model. CMC and French model sit in between. Hoping for some weather excitement out here.

We could see the odd shower this arvo.
by hillybilly
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

The latest Progs are looking remarkable. Big, long lived wet system. Showers and some storms Friday becoming widespread rain Saturday, slowly clearing. But... the upper trough stays parked over inland southeast Australia so it now doesn’t clear but showers, rain and some storms continue right throug...
by hillybilly
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:29 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Gfs and CMC are looking good this morning. Potential that Friday could be a good thundery outbreak with very high precipitable water values for October (approaching 40mm) and a deepening trough to our west. Rainy Saturday and showers Sunday. Waiting on EC to update.
by hillybilly
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:26 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 4226

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

New thread posted for end of the week :D Thanks Didjman. Progs getting excited about it :D Big of drizzle and fog here last 24 hours. 0.2mm in the gauge. Event here finishes on 35mm. MTD about 110mm. Need a bit over 10mm to our monthly average. I believe we have passed our annual average, but haven...