Search found 2736 matches

by hillybilly
Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Latest GFS not keen anymore on widespread rain for Tas/Vic next week. Moves all the action to Sydney GFSV3 has moved to be very keen for Victoria, while the older model (GFS2) has become less keen. Such are the wiggles of the models. I tend to find EC is the least wiggly of the models, and it's als...
by hillybilly
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Just shy of 7mm here from that showery band. Models had 2-5mm so it over-performed. Month will finish on about 40mm, so about 40% of the average. There's been plenty of showers here this month, but again we are missing out on anything resembling a proper rain-band.

Next week still looks hopeful :D
by hillybilly
Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Pouring here and foggy atm, though looks to be short lived :( 4mm so far.

Cities 3mm makes for the wettest day of the month and nearly double the April total :? Now about 15% of the average :x

Some showers to follow in the cold air.

Looks like locally 10mm about parts of the exposed coast :D
by hillybilly
Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:33 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Solid front for tomorrow with 850Ts dropping to about -2C and squally swly to wstly winds. Unfortunately moisture starved so showers just near the coast and ranges. Hoping for 5-10mm here, and should see locally near 20mm about the usual wet spots (Otways, Donna Buang, South Gippsland). EC looks ver...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

EC going for an early May haymaker. Large cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex that cuts off a surface low over NSW/Vic. It then gets the moisture advection machine cranking off the Tasman into a convergence zone heading into central and Gippsland. Needs a few more runs but other models are a...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:46 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

0.2mm here overnight. Currently foggy with a few spits. Looks like a gloomy day with some showers or drizzle. Not a lot in it but with April so dismally dry anything is welcome. Front on Friday looking like quite a doozie with 850Ts dropping to around -2C, though moisture starved. Could make for a d...
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Do you know where I can find Melbourne's annual rainfall data going back to when records began? I want a list of every annual total from back then to now, as it would be interesting to see if there are any patterns, but I just can't seem to find it on BOM's website (not user friendly at all) Direct...
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Bit of interest for tomorrow with the upper trough to our north getting dragged down into the westerlies. Should see some showers for most areas east of about Geelong to Bendigo. Looks like 2-5mm, but locally better around the northeast and higher Yarra Ranges. Front for Friday also looking a bit be...
by hillybilly
Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Just over 3mm here in the end. Local AWS did a bit better with 5mm. Near miss with some nice storms developing off the backside of the Dandenongs, so could have easily have been 10 or 20mm (but not to be). Cooler week ahead, with showers becoming more widespread later Thursday and Friday. Could add ...
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

1mm here :? Watching a band of storms training just to my west. Not sure if it will slip away or move east. Few falls in the 5-10mm rain showing up over the middle eastern burbs. Other area doing ok is the northeast (as expected). Sadly another bust for most. Not surprising, but disappointing. I’ve ...
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Tassiedave wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:01 am
Beyond today ACCESS G suggests a massive HIGH will sit over South East Australia for days on end.
EC has it in the bight so swly stream most days. Cooler with some showers, though won’t make it much over the divide
by hillybilly
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Finally a half interesting day. Strong upper trough approaching while low level moisture slowly increases with north to northeast winds. Instability peaks over east central through the northeast with showers and storms likely to fire from about 4pm. Moderate, perhaps heavy falls (locally). The rain/...
by hillybilly
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:53 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Hot one today. Pretty sure 30C in Melbourne will be a late season record, so could well have our third record in a week :( Similar tomorrow, but probably a touch cooler. Thundery change late tomorrow. Huge range across the models, but some are showing moderate (EC/UK) and heavy falls (ACCESS and CMC...
by hillybilly
Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Back on a warming trend ahead of late season heat records tomorrow. Sunday looks mildly interesting, but big spray across the models. Fairly sharp upper trough with weak surface trough moves cross the state middle of the arvo. Looks quite thundery, though most activity east of the line Melbourne to ...
by hillybilly
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:12 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

0.4mm in the gauge. More like a mid summer front that a mid autumn one :roll: Cooler day and a bit, and then back to record warmth. Should see more late season heat records the coming weekend. Possibly a few showers later on Sunday, but just as likely to be another fine one. Here’s the Melbourne rai...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

The wind is howling here, gusts to 95kmh at the airport too. Nasty fire weather numbers with the DF at 10 and curing at 100% :o hope people stay safe. Here it’s only moderate winds, and things are green though starting to dry again with this relentless warmth. Btw late season high minimum records a...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:45 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Another record breaking warm spell with dry conditions continuing. Warmest days likely to be Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday when plenty of places will approach or break late season records. Still no sign of meaningful rainfall so sites (including Melbourne) which are having their driest start to a y...
by hillybilly
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:42 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

Shocker of a night up here. Min of 20C with a gusty northerly. That minimum is about 5C warmer than our maxima should be at this time.

Today strikes me as a pretty bad fire weather day for all those areas which haven't see rain (most of Vic) with a dying front squeezing the isobars :(
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

Lots of late season records. Kinda sick of writing about them as we just break so many nowadays :( Will be more on the weekends. Progs showing some prospects, but not great. GFSV3, CMC and ACCESS all have light to moderate falls in the next week (locally 10-15mm). EC not quite so good, but produces ...
by hillybilly
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:29 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

Time for another thread.. perhaps the “When will it rain again thread?” Maybe Monday, maybe next week. Happy for someone else to take the lead on the guess :( Meanwhile, warm locally hot today. The incoming cloud form the TC and tropical depression has been squished by the upper level southwesterly ...