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by droughtbreaker
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Vic: Never ending High, June 10 to 20 2017
Replies: 61
Views: 27967

Re: Vic: Never ending High, June 10 to .....

Also, as a side note, even though the IOD and ENSO is currently within neutral range we are experiencing weather patterns more consistent with +ve IOD and warm ENSO. 1972 was an El Nino/+ve IOD year.
by droughtbreaker
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Vic: Never ending High, June 10 to 20 2017
Replies: 61
Views: 27967

Re: Vic: Never ending High, June 10 to .....

It looks like the period from around 21st May to 27th June 1972 was strikingly similar to the period we are experiencing currently with huge quasi stationary highs, the subtropical ridge centered over our latitudes (summer like pattern) and as a consequence very low rainfall and above average temper...
by droughtbreaker
Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Replies: 297
Views: 119729

Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017

March is basically the driest month of the year for most of Victoria anyway so when these sort of systems come around it's actually a bit of an exception to the usual pattern. We could have had another massive high come in for another two or three weeks quite easily. It's happened before at this tim...
by droughtbreaker
Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Replies: 297
Views: 119729

Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017

And just like Jan 2016 i have largely missed out up here. Mt Macedon has only scraped about 10mm from the event so far :x :? One of the lowest totals in the area. This is not the direction that favours my mountain. Shame about the fizzer storms for all you stormchasers. Its unfortunate that you all...
by droughtbreaker
Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria - Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 19 2017
Replies: 84
Views: 35094

Re: Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 31?

The wind tomorrow is mainly forecast for the morning and early afternoon and the humidity stays relatively high all day. Severe fire days usually have a big drop in humidity levels as the afternoon heats up. Tomorrow is a north easterly so a different regime to what usually causes severe fire weathe...
by droughtbreaker
Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:01 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria: Brief Taste Of Spring 6th-9th October 2016
Replies: 86
Views: 35954

Re: Brief Taste Of Spring 6th-9th October

Nothing exceptional here, just a regular gusty October afternoon ahead of a cold front with the odd decent squall. No damage whatsoever around here as far as I know, not even any branches down here.
by droughtbreaker
Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18
Replies: 196
Views: 65267

Re: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

I think a few people might be forgetting September 1993. We had 283mm that month, (easily the wettest month here in the last 40 odd years) and Gisborne was severely flooded. I remember the football oval in the town full of water up to the top of the boundary fence like a swimming pool. I also rememb...
by droughtbreaker
Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18
Replies: 196
Views: 65267

Re: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

Getting very wet out there. Five Mile Creek in Woodend is over the bank in a few places and flowing rapidly. All that water ends up in the Campaspe. The story looks to be similar right across western and west-central VIC atm. Looking like a more traditional Spring this year. Widespread river floodin...
by droughtbreaker
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:09 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Sequence of fronts: July 19-25 July
Replies: 134
Views: 44663

Re: Sequence of fronts: July 19-25 July

Just gone over 140mm here for the month with around 33mm from the last few days. The wettest July here since 1974 was 162mm in 1983. There's a fairly strong chance that could be beaten between now and Wednesday.

5C here currently but fairly dry air with some sunny breaks.
by droughtbreaker
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:13 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong cold front and lows: July 10 -
Replies: 200
Views: 63307

Re: Strong cold front and lows: July 10 -

There was a solid dusting here at 8am (520 m asl). Not much but enough to turn most of the ground white. It's good to see it can still snow here. We only get settled snow about every 5 years here these days and we haven't had a substantial fall since 1995.
by droughtbreaker
Fri May 20, 2016 11:07 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of fronts in strong westerlies until Friday 20th.
Replies: 35
Views: 14348

Re: Series of fronts in strong westerlies until Friday 20th.

It looks like around 3mm for here. 76mm for the month which is a little above the monthly average, but if the rain progged in the models comes off I could be looking at over 100mm which would be around the top 20% for the last 40 odd years here. It certainly looks like the El Nino grip has finally l...
by droughtbreaker
Fri Apr 22, 2016 10:06 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: April 20-22. Trough with showers.
Replies: 38
Views: 15707

Re: April 20-22. Trough with showers.

17.8mm here and not a second too soon. :roll: The effect of this El Nino locally has actually been quite extreme in terms of the absolute high pressure dominance for most of the period from October to now, and still continuing on. Maybe not quite as bad as 1982/83 in terms of overall impact but at l...
by droughtbreaker
Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Vic: Warm start then maybe some rain - 1st to 14th Mar 2016
Replies: 181
Views: 60662

Re: Warm start to autumn then maybe some rain?

Stuck under the southerlies this afternoon. Just 19C atm and mizzle, similar to what some bayside suburbs have been reporting in recent days. It was warm and very humid this morning before the cooler air came in.
by droughtbreaker
Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?
Replies: 136
Views: 49224

Re: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

Very frustrating last few days. Only got 3.5mm out of it whilst places not too far away got good falls. Still better than nothing I suppose and slows down the drying process after the Boxing day rain event. Very dull morning here, thick low cloud, showers and drizzle showing on radar but mainly just...
by droughtbreaker
Sun Jan 03, 2016 5:27 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?
Replies: 136
Views: 49224

Re: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

South easterly has ruined it anywhere on and south of the ranges. Very stable and cool airstream and not even all that humid. Storms rumbling away for ages just to the north of here but barely one drop coming from it (yet 17mm at Lancefield.) Our only chance here and further south is if somehow the ...
by droughtbreaker
Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?
Replies: 136
Views: 49224

Re: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

Nice to see a solid week of mild humid easterlies after this heat clears out. As mentioned previously, the major models are back on board for a multi day rain/storm event. Who knows what we all actually end up with, but I'd say with so many consecutive days with a favorable pattern most of us should...
by droughtbreaker
Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?
Replies: 136
Views: 49224

Re: Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

Just over 580mm for the year here. That's very dry but still above the 1982 and 1994 El Nino years, so not the worst. Models will twist and turn constantly with this setup. GFS has 25-30mm here and EC (which is terrible for convection based rainfall) still has 7mm on Sunday locally so it's not as if...
by droughtbreaker
Sun Dec 20, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Hot again with some showers and storms: 14-20 Dec
Replies: 170
Views: 63856

Re: Hot again with some showers and storms: 14-20 Dec

Not a great deal of wind here so far. Certainly nowhere near 40-50km/hr. I'd expect squally conditions near the change but if it's coming through early perhaps this is decreasing potential wind speeds a bit. :?: Surprised at how well we got away with things yesterday. Most of the fires that started ...
by droughtbreaker
Sat Dec 19, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Hot again with some showers and storms: 14-20 Dec
Replies: 170
Views: 63856

Re: Hot again with some showers and storms: 14-20 Dec

4.5mm here from two separate cells. A massive relief, wasn't expecting much to fall after a 39C day here (would be a December record by about 0.5C-1C I'd say) Temp dropped down to 23C now. It will spike up again when the northerlies pick up again overnight but a bit of a relief for the garden and ge...
by droughtbreaker
Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Hot again with some showers and storms: 14-20 Dec
Replies: 170
Views: 63856

Re: Hot again with some showers and storms: 14-20 Dec

Bizarre here. The odd drop of rain coming down and surviving to the ground under a mostly clear sky with just a smallish Cu congestus to the near north. All the while it's 37C (max so far 38.9C). Some of the clouds developing atm look a bit lower level and chunkier, almost as if the atmosphere is mo...