Search found 2573 matches

by Anthony Violi
Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:57 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: September warm wave and troughs 26-28 September
Replies: 110
Views: 18483

Re: September heatwave 26-29 September

Apparently its never been warm in late September. And 850 temps are irrelevant, its what transpires on the surface, unless of course you live at 6000 feet above Sea level. It will get to 30 or maybe low 30s in the Nw corner, but nothing near previous temperatures for us here. It will be a normal lat...
by Anthony Violi
Sat Sep 22, 2012 5:28 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

My new seasonal forecast is out.

http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/ ... mber-2012/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
by Anthony Violi
Fri Sep 21, 2012 5:29 am
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

No worries Crikey. If you want a forecast for the ENSO, IOD and SST, just go opposite to the models and thats going to be a closer outcome. Im not sure if you have noticed bu the +IOD was brief and seasonal, but its now over and temps have exploded rapidly at the surface through the region, as i sug...
by Anthony Violi
Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:28 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

By November the basin will be more cool than warm...and the Indian will be warm, as will the Coral Sea.

Just trying to find a calculator to see if i can work out what the answer is.
by Anthony Violi
Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:51 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Good pick up John, and it highlights a problem with the models. How can we pick these things up months beforehand? Simple, because models are told that El nino is king, Co2 is warming the oceans etc etc. Yet we look at these things and can see we are in a cold PDO, most models would not have any clu...
by Anthony Violi
Mon Sep 17, 2012 7:39 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Quick update for everyone. I think it will unravel fairly quickly, as the movement is now on.

http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/ ... the-shift/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
by Anthony Violi
Sun Sep 16, 2012 8:43 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Shortly i will release another outlook, in the meantime here is some food for thought, and a reason why we will get plastered for years to come.

http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/ ... this-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
by Anthony Violi
Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:36 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia
Replies: 1084
Views: 191326

Re: Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

The climate response is going to be massive to the last 6 months. I think we are going to do it all again, the question is will it be biblical like 10/11 or just stock standard massive. I havent seen the planets align like this too often, everything is going to gether all at once again. The main thi...
by Anthony Violi
Sat Sep 15, 2012 2:05 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Unsettled Weather - Showers and storms. Sep 16th - Sep 22nd
Replies: 149
Views: 24267

Re: Unsettled Weather - Showers and storms. Sep 16th - Sep 2

Yeah there are problems with GFs everywhere, not just NOMADS.

Could be a stormy week with this trough moving in and then being ridden North into the inland trough.
by Anthony Violi
Fri Sep 14, 2012 6:42 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Spring Fronts. Sep 12-14 2012
Replies: 58
Views: 9950

Re: Spring Fronts. Sep 12-?? 2012

Never mind this stuff, just drizzly patches. Some unsettled weather appearing next week which is signs the switch is now coming. However, in a few weeks we could see a very large system brewing with an almighty LWT, its a few weeks away but i have seen the signs for something major. Given by then we...
by Anthony Violi
Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:15 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Melbourne dams
Replies: 49
Views: 25170

Re: Melbourne dams

Yes and the experts who suggested such nonsense as not enough rain to fill the dams we should have built should be discredited, and dispanded. Lake Eildon, 3 times the size of Thompson, filled in 14 months from almost empty. But thats not even half of it, they have released 1.1Million megalitres the...
by Anthony Violi
Thu Sep 13, 2012 4:58 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Spring Fronts. Sep 12-14 2012
Replies: 58
Views: 9950

Re: Spring Fronts. Sep 12-?? 2012

Yeah echoing Karl's thoughts, not much to do with El Niño. The Iod is now slightly positive, but this is not too unusual for this time of year. It is the dry season, and the cold air has been consistently drawn up into the ridge all winter and swept NW into Indonesia. So that's why it's dry inland a...
by Anthony Violi
Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:50 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

I just made a new post on the Indian Ocean for the coming season. http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/09/08/indian-ocean-off-the-nw-coast/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Upper 300 metre temp anomaly shows a good deal of warmth through the basin, and more inmportantly North of Aust...
by Anthony Violi
Sat Sep 08, 2012 11:54 am
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: Winter 2012
Replies: 6
Views: 5981

Re: Winter 2012

A bit of perspective on the BOM and the use of baselines, our winter was actually a lot colder than everyone thinks.

http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/ ... competent/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
by Anthony Violi
Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:25 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: 2011 - Global temps on the way down
Replies: 34
Views: 15594

Re: 2011 - Global temps on the way down

And the trend continues. temps are slowly falling and will accelerate once the AMO goes cold. However, this is not what the experts told us would happen. http://i569.photobucket.com/albums/ss134/avioli_2009/PaintImage4206.jpg At the moment we are miles under Scenario C, and thats with Hansen adjusti...
by Anthony Violi
Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:04 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: ACORN dataset...close to the worst in the world.
Replies: 0
Views: 7755

ACORN dataset...close to the worst in the world.

New topic which was bought up in the normal threads so we can discuss it here. We have seen how the BOM operate, they had a high quality dataset, but when they were pushed to release vital information, such as the codes to how they made such adjustments, they scrapped the dataset, and released Acorn...
by Anthony Violi
Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:10 pm
Forum: Climatology Archives
Topic: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012
Replies: 80
Views: 39342

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Certainly very dry through there John. Anyhow, SOI 30 day has dumped to -5.5, with the running 90 day at -5.7. By the end of next week we will lose the big negatives from early August so the 30 day will be down to about 3 if the dailys stay roughly the same. http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/08...
by Anthony Violi
Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:07 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria: Cold Front - August 28-September 1 2012
Replies: 120
Views: 18019

Re: Victoria: Cold Front - August 28-September 1 2012

That's not important John, what is important is that it snow at Ferny Creek because it rivals the Himalayas and is the centre of the Alpine hub of Australia, and heat waves at Humpty Doo..everything else doesn't matter.
by Anthony Violi
Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:36 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria: Cold Front - August 28-September 1 2012
Replies: 120
Views: 18019

Re: Victoria: Cold Front - August 28-September 1 2012

It's flogging down here in Hallam, front has formed a nice heavy rainband and will deliver 20mm through most areas, especially Upper Yarra which will have a flood watch issued later. Luckily it's a dry winter and fronts are a thing of the past, otherwise there would be a mad panic on as Upper Yarra ...
by Anthony Violi
Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:52 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria: Cold Front - August 28-September 1 2012
Replies: 120
Views: 18019

Re: Victoria: Cold Front - August 28-September 1 2012

Bay effect in full swing now with hail and thunder going off its head over this side of town. In fact with such a big train it could see at least 20mm from the bay effect.

Saw plenty of flashes about an hour ago to me south, went through rowville and was hailing its balls off.