Search found 3130 matches

by Jake Smethurst
Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 40613

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

I for one am going to assume any storms that develop will stick to the ranges. Latest sounding for Melbourne indicates more stable conditions than yesterday. Yep, looking similar to yesterday. The trough is weakening which is why storm risk diminishes substantially tomorrow. Our thoughts on today -...
by Jake Smethurst
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Tropical Australia
Topic: Tropics day to day weather talk
Replies: 354
Views: 41624

Re: Tropics day to day weather talk

Off-topic conversation is fine (there's been plenty of that I haven't touched), but what is not fine is the racial and derogatory comment made towards Asian ethnicity.
by Jake Smethurst
Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 40613

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

Our updated chart for today - little change. Click for bigger.

Image
by Jake Smethurst
Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 40613

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

The nature of these types of events I'm afraid Strato ... but it is promising to see storms develop so early. Mangalore Weather Station reporting 31mm since 8am Not surprised! :D They'll be very slow moving all day so if one can manage to get underneath, flash flooding risk is high. This is our map ...
by Jake Smethurst
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020
Replies: 180
Views: 23467

Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Should see showers or rain develop late this morning and into the afternoon for central parts including Melbourne, including risk of storms. Not everybody will see the heavy falls though. Here's what EC thinks for today, but any convective activity will result in higher falls. EC animation at 1hr in...
by Jake Smethurst
Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020
Replies: 180
Views: 23467

Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Severe weather warning now current for parts of western and central Victoria. Can't say I've seen the "intense rainfall" or "dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding" tags many times before. Severe Weather Warning for HEAVY RAINFALL For people in Central, South West, North Central, Wimmera and ...
by Jake Smethurst
Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020
Replies: 180
Views: 23467

Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Back to sunny here. The temperature dropped 10 degrees in about 15 minutes under that convective shower, dew point shot up to 20.5 though! :-o Concerns also for the Victoria energy grid this afternoon and evening, with load shedding possible. To make matters worse, strong winds have knocked down sev...
by Jake Smethurst
Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020
Replies: 180
Views: 23467

Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Brief, heavy rain here with gusty winds. Lasted about 4 minutes! Washing the last of that red dust away. Still 42 degrees. EDIT: Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Melbourne Area for DAMAGING WINDS For people in South East and parts of Port Phillip waters, Western Port, Inner East, Mornington Peninsula a...
by Jake Smethurst
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020
Replies: 180
Views: 23467

Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Latest 06z GFS is keen on rain over Melbourne for hours on Saturday into Sunday early. But we all know what the mid 06z/18z updates are like ... :D Still quite a dynamic setup, so will be interesting how the finer details play out. SW/Wimmera has been consistently progging well rain-wise, but lots o...
by Jake Smethurst
Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

@Jake @Robyn Was there a new easier way to post pics coming ? We did have an easier method direct in the forum, but it became non-compatible when we upgraded (we're working on bringing this back). Best way for now is to upload via attachments when replying or via an image host service such as https...
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

James wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:55 pm
is that all for today, or is the conditions there for storms to form overnight?
Conditions remain favorable for further shower and thunderstorm development overnight, but it will be hit and miss so you'll have get lucky. There is still quite a lot of instability out there and convergence.
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Good to hear, Adam! Better safe than sorry!

Thunder getting louder here in Cheltenham, must be from the non-severe stuff moving south now.
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

That cell showing some interesting signatures, Adam. Probably going to pack a bit of a punch! Is the car parked under cover? :P

Can still hear rumbles here, not sure from which cells.
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Doppler shows possible rotation west of Lancefield Yep, wouldn't want to be in the path of that storm. It's split off the rest of the flow now and likely producing large hail and damaging winds plus the heavy rain. The cell southwest of Gisborne is becoming interesting, meanwhile the thunderstorm n...
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Definitely a hook again, look at it move away from the rest of the storm. Supercell!
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Hook echo on the latest frame? I reckon Reed Timmer would agree with that! ...and so would I. I think so!! Will be interesting to see any reports out of that area. have seen plenty of large hail pics. Overall storm is weakening as it enters the bay. P.S. just getting hail now here in Cheltenham, bu...
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Hook echo on the latest frame?
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Definitely as you say Flyfisher! Will bypass here to the north as it continues it's trajectory away from the other storms. Constant thunder here now in Cheltenham. Have seen videos of flash flooding and hail online already from this cell, intense stuff! EDIT: Maybe it won't miss, look at the latest ...
by Jake Smethurst
Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Awesome pics! Can just start to hear the thunder in Cheltenham!

From Moorabbin DFO.
20200119_152610.jpg
20200119_152610.jpg (1.57 MiB) Viewed 810 times
by Jake Smethurst
Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
Replies: 505
Views: 40242

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Managed 24.6mm from the storms the other day. Was kept absolutely flat out at work from about 4pm-9pm because of the storms, was crazy! Very interesting period on the way as analysed so well by our members here :) Weekend looks stormy in general, particularly Sunday with locally heavy falls in thund...