Search found 1718 matches

by JasmineStorm
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Another 7mm on the front last night. 41mm for the thread, 73mm MTD. Fair start to June :)
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Looks like the front is heading through central areas now.

30mm for the day, 34mm for the thread. 67mm MTD. Only 13mm off the June ave now.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Continuous moderate rain, 24mm for the day and rising.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Rumbles earlier, 6mm and ticking over here. Widespread non mountainous gravity wave clouds above Victoria at the moment, the Jet stream is going into overdrive :)
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Sparks to the NW and SW of here. 300 km/h Jet stream starting to work its magic.
by JasmineStorm
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Yes, lots of moisture but it's a fast mover. Access C 00Z is in and it's projecting a widespread rain event except for East Gippsland with parts south of the ranges falling victim to the north westerly rain shadow. Mallee and Wimmera will love this moisture rich NW flow. The winds around the Yarra V...
by JasmineStorm
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

BoM now have the SWW for tomorrow, virtually state wide for wind and also heavy rain (Wimmera and Mallee). http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml

I'm waiting patiently for the Access C run this afternoon :)
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

I wasn't sure what I would get in round 1. Ended up squeezing in 4mm. EC has been very consistent for 30 to 50mm on Wednesday around here. Access R going for 40 to 60mm on the 18Z run here with quite decent falls in the Wimmera and Mallee, 20 to 30mm for metro Melbourne. Will be interesting to see A...
by JasmineStorm
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

Locally , for over 147 years of data from the BoM site, it seems the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of dry extremes and not the Pacific or Indian oceans. Problem is the SAM is a symptom or diagnostic rather than a driver or predictable mode. Also, the SAM in our region is influenced...
by JasmineStorm
Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

yes HB, the good old 'lucky' MJO is going to strike again :D Nice extra stats SB on 1908. I hadn't looked into the snow and heat side of it. It's quite fascinating to have a look at past extremes. Locally, here are the lowest 5 years of rainfall (1872 to present) and what the Pacific and Indian were...
by JasmineStorm
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15
Replies: 117
Views: 4042

Re: Sequence of fronts with possible low: June 9-15

EC, Access G and CMC now projecting 80 to 100mm in the latest 10 day outlook for here :) Locally, this year is starting to look like 1908 which was a swinging positive IOD and neutral El Nino. Only 51mm fell in the first 4 months in 1908 and then nearly 500mm fell in the next 6 months with the tradi...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6
Replies: 91
Views: 3035

Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

27mm for the thread. Great start to June.

Access C was the only model yesterday to get the intensity of 50 to 100mm but missed the more westward location of the intense convergence zone.
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6
Replies: 91
Views: 3035

Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

The PWS on the eastern side of Trentham has just cracked 100mm since midnight :)

Main convergence is weakening as it comes down the northern side of the range but I have finally got to 21mm with light to moderate rain. Not surprising to see a minor flood warning on the Werribee river.
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6
Replies: 91
Views: 3035

Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Melbourne wind obs suggest the convergence is inching east towards Melbourne.
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6
Replies: 91
Views: 3035

Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

17mm and slow moving up. That South easterly wrap is starting to squeeze hard west of Melbourne.

Plenty of gauges now around 50mm on the southern slopes. East Trentham now 71mm and rising https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/I90581474
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6
Replies: 91
Views: 3035

Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Lovely convergence, 10mm so far here, moderate rain getting heavier . East Trentham has a gauge on 50mm. It's flow is starting to go from southerly to south easterly. Parts of Melbourne might get another round this morning.
by JasmineStorm
Sun Jun 02, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: 2018/2019 Possible upcoming weather events
Replies: 48
Views: 12303

Re: 2018/2019 Possible upcoming weather events

There appears to be some warming in the lower stratosphere nth of Antarctica between Africa and Oz. Nothing too drastic atm, but possibly giving us a cold outbreak mid June (if I am reading this right). JS?? There is strong warming signal from the GEFS ensemble in the upper stratospheric polar vort...
by JasmineStorm
Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6
Replies: 91
Views: 3035

Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Latest Access C showing a wrap around outer convergence in the southerly flow :) Rainfall projections are a heap more than current forecasts for certain central areas overnight, drops off further north of the divide. BoM 4.20pm forecast will be interesting
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 31, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 249
Views: 6997

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Another 4mm in the last 24 hours here get its up to 117mm MTD. Nearly 2 inches above the May mean and the highest May rainfall for nearly 3 decades. Those lucky climate indicators of MJO and SAM...... I just can't believe my luck :)
by JasmineStorm
Thu May 30, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 249
Views: 6997

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

That looks like a 40 day forecast? Maybe I’m reading it wrong. Yep, 46 day ensemble. It has included the important cyclic climatic factors for Vic of the MJO phase and the negative SAM. It's earlier runs before these indicators became apparent were bleak for rainfall in May. That would make it a be...