Search found 1688 matches

by JasmineStorm
Mon May 27, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Going on EC latest 18z run, Melbourne is a chance not to get past double figures on Wednesday. Record lowest max for Melbourne in May is 8.3c set on 31 May 1977.
by JasmineStorm
Mon May 27, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Impressive Gordon! Takes a lot of energy in May to settle snow around 600m during the day :)

Has been sleeting here, feels like July.

Models seem to have underestimated the strength of the Rossby wave with more oomph lowering the snow level. That starts to make Wednesday very interesting :)
by JasmineStorm
Mon May 27, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

hillybilly wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 6:20 am
Currently 3C but feels like zero give or take :?
You might be a chance for snow flurries with this incoming trough
by JasmineStorm
Mon May 27, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

6mm bringing the event total to 16mm so far. 102mm MTD :)

Currently 3c and a 1c DP here. Current observations suggest sleet if moisture can get over the range. I'd say snow might fall nearby to Ballarat soon with these obs and incoming moisture with the trough.
by JasmineStorm
Sun May 26, 2019 7:44 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

10mm so far for the thread. Good start. Brings the MTD to 96mm. Should crack the monthly tonne tonight.

EC 12Z showing freezing levels dropping to 800m on Wednesday evening with a SW showery flow. @Gordon, that would bring your altitude and area into the snow zone in my opinion.
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 24, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Squall line a little angry near Aireys Inlet. Doppler radar now becoming unsettled to the west of here.
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 24, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Didjman wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 5:06 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 4:18 pm

Edit: Signs of a developing squall line in the SW
Its sparking nth of Terang atm
and now south of Terang. Seems to be a bit of inter cloud lightning as well :)
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 24, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Currently there is increasing moisture in the mid levels to the west of Melbourne, no temp inversion and TT's in the 50's. Interesting to see if anything pops over the next few hours.


Edit: Signs of a developing squall line in the SW
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 24, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Nice and dark to my west.

The Adelaide and Melbourne airport's weather balloons recorded 'total totals' of 51 and 50 this morning. It's quite unstable aloft, so any mid level moisture near the incoming trough might produce a rumble or 2 today and this evening.
by JasmineStorm
Wed May 22, 2019 6:39 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

just adding the HB's comments... The sudden warming is caused by upward propagating tropospheric zonal winds becoming weak, allowing the stratosphere to warm. Once the zonal winds pick up again, the Stratosphere and Troposphere start to couple, which has a weakening effect on the tropospheric polar ...
by JasmineStorm
Tue May 21, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Re: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Latest runs across the board still showing a strong sequence, New GFS has a brutal polar cold shot at the end with -5c @850 hPa across Vic. Rainfall wise, 20 to 100mm across a wide area (especially southern) for the last week of May. EC control dropping the cut off low scenario but keeping a big SW ...
by JasmineStorm
Tue May 21, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May
Replies: 108
Views: 3527

Low pressure sequence. 24–31 May

Time to pull the trigger as May might go out with a bang. A sudden stratospheric warming event over the South Pole between 10 to 12 May, has propagated into the troposphere, sending the polar jet stream northward. This is setting up a sequence of upper polar lows that will become stronger in the seq...
by JasmineStorm
Mon May 20, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Cut off low: May 19-23
Replies: 22
Views: 1131

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

5mm here, 86mm MTD, 11mm above the May mean, looking like over a 100mm + for the May total is a lock in.

Sharp dipping negative SAM in a week from now that has originated from a moderate sudden stratospheric warming event over the south pole 2 weeks ago. The polar vortex is coming soon :)
by JasmineStorm
Mon May 13, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12
Replies: 189
Views: 5427

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

hillybilly wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 6:11 am

TC Ann Cat 2. Cant recall a May TC impacting the Queensland coast, but my memory for such things isn’t great ;)
Last one to cross the Qld coast in May was in 1989 I think.

First recorded May cyclone was in 1898, last one before Ann was TC Pierre in 2007. 34 May cyclones since records began.
by JasmineStorm
Sat May 11, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12
Replies: 189
Views: 5427

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Nice shots HB, an incredible cell it was. This was my favourite pic that I saw... they needed something better than a shovel for that much hail :)
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 10, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12
Replies: 189
Views: 5427

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Didjman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 4:33 pm
Didjman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 8:16 am
Definate hook on Doppler nth of Lara now
JS, any idea what the hook was?
There didn't seem to be a an overall Mesocyclone signature so I think the hook was the rear flank of a gust front that came off the bay. Great spotting again ;)
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 10, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12
Replies: 189
Views: 5427

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

31mm for last 24 hours, + 4mm the other day gives 35mm for the thread. 81mm MTD, cruised past the 75mm monthly average in only 10 days.

Some great totals to the South of here. A few May records have fallen in the last 24 hours.
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 10, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12
Replies: 189
Views: 5427

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Starting to see some good bay and Bass strait streamers :)

Just for the record - BoM now have a heavy rain warning for the South eastern assault
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 10, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12
Replies: 189
Views: 5427

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Just missing that band here for now. Water temps in the Bays and Bass strait are currently 4 to 5c warmer than the air temp above it. That epic cell around Wonthaggi is a loving that soupy warm sea surface feed. The moisture advection machine will hopefully starts launching southerly water bombs off...
by JasmineStorm
Fri May 10, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12
Replies: 189
Views: 5427

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Amazing storm been anchored near the shore just south of Philip Island. In the last hour this has edged over land with a private station showing over 60mm and coming down currently at about 100mm/hr. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICAPEPAT3?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Up to 3.8mm at home :? ...