Search found 1297 matches

by JasmineStorm
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018
Replies: 80
Views: 1747

Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Multicell clusters firing up nicely here. Plenty of sparks.
by JasmineStorm
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018
Replies: 80
Views: 1747

Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

@Gordon, thanks for the mention ;)

A few mm, plenty of sparks, claps and gusts around 70 km/h here.

This explains the 120 km/h + gusts on the Port Philip Bay and the damage across Melbourne. A line echo wave formed. Doppler image is maxing out as it crossed the bay….nasty squall line indeed :)
by JasmineStorm
Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018
Replies: 80
Views: 1747

Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

It's all coming together nicely ;)
by JasmineStorm
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:31 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018
Replies: 80
Views: 1747

Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Big vertical temperature differences between 850 and 500 hPa this afternoon and evening in central areas. Access R showing above 55 this evening on the 12z run. If that verifies, there could be an angry squall line with a good chance of sparks.
by JasmineStorm
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018
Replies: 80
Views: 1747

Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

All pretty stock standard winter so far up here. A few -3 to 4c’s in the last week, around 20mm for July, a bit of sleet thrown in the mix. Water tanks and dam doing well. EC and GEFS ensembles have brilliantly nailed the weather pattern change @500 hPa and the stratospheric levels, 2 weeks out at t...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-15 2018
Replies: 111
Views: 3347

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

EC ensemble picked up the change of weather pattern quite well from a week ago. EC control now showing 5 fronts in the next 11 days. Watching the Rossby wave movement east with interest in mid July ;)
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-15 2018
Replies: 111
Views: 3347

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Nice brisk start today. Dog's outside water bowl had ice forming at 10pm last night, which is always a good measure for an under -3c minimum the next morning. Got down to -4.6 here. Lower parts of the stratospheric polar vortex near the tropopause are starting to lose shape. https://earth.nullschool...
by JasmineStorm
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Weak front then frosty nights and sunny days: June 23-30 2018
Replies: 55
Views: 2051

Re: Weak front then frost nights and sunny days: June 23-30

6 month summary to June 30 for Kyneton. Warmer temp and normal rainfall.

Daily temperature average 14.9 (100 year average 13.1)
Below zero 8 times, (100 year average 7.5)
329mm (100 year average 342mm)
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Weak front then frosty nights and sunny days: June 23-30 2018
Replies: 55
Views: 2051

Re: Weak front then frost nights and sunny days: June 23-30

Not much to report from here. A few -3 to -4c standard frosts in the last week, near average rainfall for the year so far. All looks pretty neutral. Might have spotted something coming up in regards to polar vortex mid latitude launch http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events
Replies: 22
Views: 3873

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Stratospheric warming occurring in the lower levels near the tropopause over Antarctica in a weeks time on the GEFS ensemble. EC ensemble going for a big cold shot towards Vic after it mixes down sending the tropospheric polar vortex equatorward. Possibly Rossby wave thrust into SE OZ around July 10...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Around 35mm for here for the thread, a nice little extra drop yesterday with the southerly feed getting over the range. Solid falls around yesterday’s convergence zone.

I’m only 20mm off the 100 year average now for June 30. It all works out in the end :)
by JasmineStorm
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Significant amounts of water vapour being detected in the in the mid levels of the troposphere over the western side of the bay atm.
by JasmineStorm
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

The moisture advection machine is ramping up nicely. Air temps averaging 5c to 10c below the sea surface temps. The snaking convergence zones is one to watch on the radar. The one just to the east of the city is nearly -60c on the cloud tops atm.
by JasmineStorm
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Low now in eastern Bass Strait. This is a classic Port Phillip bay convergence zone set up with the southerly wrap. Latest Access C 18Z starting to show it for the next 24 hours . The game changed last night when the low went over Tassie :)
by JasmineStorm
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Its 3C outside here. With that line coming up the bay - maybe some fluffy stuff? Satpic looks good too. That trough is kicking off some nice cold convection off Bass strait and bays. Currently just over 2c here but the range and Sea surface temps may hamper the fluffy stuff falling here. I love how...
by JasmineStorm
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Not much in the last lot here but quite windy on the squall line last night. 30mm now since Monday. Fujiwhara effect still in progress with a 2nd circulation centre spinning just south of Tassie. Models only had 1 at this point. Obs in Tassie dropped to around 987 hPa but have moved slightly higher ...
by JasmineStorm
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Nice looking satellite image at 10.30. Fujiwhara effect currently in progress between 2 lows.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

A very traditional cold NW flow and 29mm since Monday :) GFS just keeps upgrading for the weekend for cold, other models still keeping their cool. On GFS, central Vic will be between -30c to -34c @ 500 hPa, -4 to -5c @850 hPa on Sunday morning. Sea surface temps around 15c on the Bays and Bass strai...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018
Replies: 179
Views: 6357

Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Latest GFS run 18z showing a significant polar vortex pulse with upper cold air breaching over the Gulf of Carpentaria. 528 thickness line launching into central Victoria with a 500 hPa polar injection from near 70 degrees south. That will be snow on the Dandenong's Saturday night if it verifies. H...