Search found 1599 matches

by JasmineStorm
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Cooler with a couple of stronger fronts: Feb 9-14
Replies: 51
Views: 2133

Re: Cooler with a couple of stronger fronts: Feb 9-14

Nice to see a half decent cold front for once :)

I'm seeing a near 20c degree difference from the Port Philip bay surface and 850 hPa this afternoon. A key ingredient of cold convection.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Wind convergence is still sitting around Melbourne. Not much chance for here but it gives the north and north eastern areas around Melbourne a chance for a storm this afternoon.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

14 glorious mils. Close CG’s and big kabooms, very happy with yesterday. Superb storm structure on that rogue that went across the west and north of Melbourne. Gotta luv those summer storm set ups. For me, I would think that will be it. Currently 2 troughs in play but it doesn’t line up as well toda...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

The constant inflow on the northern side of this cluster around Melbourne is formidable.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Avalon footage is giving the impression of mesocyclone development. Doppler suggesting similar. Also a rogue right hander in front of the mothership on radar.

https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/1093045586671124480
by JasmineStorm
Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

You are in a significant supercell inflow notch Gordon. That cell NW of Geelong is dangerous
by JasmineStorm
Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Based on the radar echoes and water vapours images, it seems like the trough is starting to show a negative tilt. Winds at 700 hPa are also around 40 to 50 knots to maintain the cells.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Nice one Jake. Afternoon crew, nice day for an outbreak of wet microbursts. Explosive observations at the moment to the east of those current storms. The atmospheric river currently pushing into the Mallee is a tropical water slide http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=...
by JasmineStorm
Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Access C is only until tomorrow night SB....and things will wiggle again before tomorrow afternoon I'm sure :)

James, too early to tell for hail but rain drops will splat the size of 50 cent pieces on the ground if a cell arrives over your house.
by JasmineStorm
Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Access C 00z has just run and it's going rogue as well. Location for these totals are hit and miss, as one wiggle with the negatively tilted trough and the big falls move but this gives you the general vibe on how volatile this set up is. The BoM would only be just digesting this latest data, so I d...
by JasmineStorm
Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:07 pm

How’s the 18Z run looking? 12Z had backed off a bit. GFS and GFS3 18Z look good.
EC's 18Z is starting to look quite severe. K index going to the top of scale tomorrow evening around the bay. All the others indicators also looking big.
by JasmineStorm
Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 9160

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Not much to report on from up here. Got to 37c on Sunday but thankfully the wind wasn’t too bad. An old smoking lightning strike tree certainly kept Hepburn on their toes. Quite a lot to digest in the models. I’m loving these new EC 18z and 06z high resolution runs (72 hours) that have just come in....
by JasmineStorm
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019
Replies: 145
Views: 4852

Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

wolfcat wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:06 am
Lightning Stack Image from last nights storm.

Image
Big Storm by Wolf, on Flickr


Total of 1.5mm in the gauge...
Superb ;)
by JasmineStorm
Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:25 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019
Replies: 145
Views: 4852

Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Nice to see it pop again south of the range last night ahead of the trough. Lucked out up here for the 2nd round but will bank the 13mm, to give me 15mm for January.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019
Replies: 145
Views: 4852

Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Lots of moisture in the mid levels of the troposphere currently east of trough which is still around Geelong, Ballarat, Donald (7pm). Big temperatures differences between the layers as well. This could pop again anywhere east of the trough IMO. I see Melbourne OP and Moorabbin have 20c dew points at...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019
Replies: 145
Views: 4852

Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

13mm here, a little violent at times. Trough is still west of Geelong and Ballarat ;) Nice Video Stevco, loved the crack at 1 min 37 sec ;) 5.40pm water vapour image caught the cloud tops north of the city near Lancefield exploding to near -70c :) Doppler showed what seems a like a mesocyclone attem...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019
Replies: 145
Views: 4852

Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Starting to pop nicely, rumbling away. North westerly attack of microbursts with upper winds at 700 hPa of 50 to 60 knots supporting their development. These babies can be quite dangerous, I've seen this type of high based cell peel a mature gum tree like a banana.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:19 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019
Replies: 145
Views: 4852

Re: VIC - Hot and humid with showers and storms: Last week of January 2019

Access R is showing huge Total totals through central areas this evening and tonight around the trough. Other models similar. 30 to 35c degree differences from 850 to 500 hPa with juicy surface dew points. Mid level moisture not too bad. If the projections verify, sit back on the porch and watch the...