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by JasmineStorm
Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

weathergasm wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:50 am
All those upper troughs won’t do us much good if they’re not meeting up with some tropical moisture, so here’s hoping the +IOD breaks down sooner rather than later.
It already has met moisture. That's what triggered the inland rain and storms over NSW, QLD and Vic so far in Nov.
by JasmineStorm
Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Sudden stratospheric warming from September continuing to pump SAM into negative :) Conveyor belt of upper troughs well in place. BoM's Nov outlook underestimating the rainfall impact from the upper troughs over Victoria for November.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

BoM now publicly declaring it as well. Interesting November ahead.... Heat spikes, bush fires up the north and big cut off lows on the menu.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/rec ... ace/530389
by JasmineStorm
Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Here comes the sudden stratospheric warming disturbance from September :) SAM starting to fall off the cliff.
by JasmineStorm
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

No probs ;) That 2nd circulation and the upper low in the troposphere below it is a sign that they have coupled with the upper stratosphere above. Chaos reins and the polar jet is thrown northward near Sth America :) So that coupling appears to last only a couple of days. Is that it, or will there ...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

There is a 2nd vortex circulation developing around the tropopause at 150 hPA below the main upper stratospheric vortex near Sth America around 72 hours, viewed on https://www.stratobserve.com/prs_gphws_maps Seen that. So that is the coupling or beginning of? Wow! You have taught me sooo much :D Th...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I noticed the LWT near Sth America on the 3d site, but where(site) / what GPH do you see the tropospheric vortex? Nullschool at 250 hpa looks the go?? There is a 2nd vortex circulation developing around the tropopause at 150 hPA below the main upper stratospheric vortex near Sth America around 72 h...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

SSW seems to be coupling near the Jetstream in a week, hard to tell still on when full potential reaches the lower troposphere. How do you know re coupling ahead of time? What do you look at? The vortex circulation in the upper troposphere is aligning in position to the above stratospheric vortex. ...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

SSW seems to be coupling near the Jetstream in a week, hard to tell still on when full potential reaches the lower troposphere. SAM saves the day again in Vic for the Southern wet season. Virtually no rain in March and April, positive IOD, neutral pacific and then BANG.....the start of May has a mod...
by JasmineStorm
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: New South Wales / Australian Capital Territory
Topic: SNOW FALLS in NSW...Past and present
Replies: 22
Views: 1556

Re: SNOW FALLS in NSW...Past and present

Perisher have had so much of the white stuff, the official season is now going into mid Oct :) Great to see !!
by JasmineStorm
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

EC has the SSW on the move downward, starting to cook at 100 HPA near the polar circle :)

In other driver news, Pacific is getting very interesting :) Some Fijian expresses during cyclone season heading towards OZ if this keeps going
by JasmineStorm
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

These graphics are pretty impressive: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.gif Edit: It appears the speed of rotation of the outer areas of the vortex at both 70 and 10 hpa is slowing, Incredible sequence...
by JasmineStorm
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

This article just out on the ABC site https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/rare-weather-event-over-antarctica-drives-hot-outlook/11481498 says the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is almost unprecedented (only one other to rival it recorded in 2002) but no mention of cold/ low level sno...
by JasmineStorm
Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Classic negative SAM and positive IOD climate signatures for August. Certainly been a cold and wet around these parts. Snow lovers lapping it up in the Alps :)
by JasmineStorm
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Hi JS, where do you see the polar jet in that graphic, or is that in something else?? Are you referring to the 2 lobes at the bottom?? Yes, correct. You will see the polar jet start to jag out at the bottom in multiple locations as major propagating Rossby waves head equatorward. The stratospheric ...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

GFS showing a mini stratospheric vortex and an out of control polar jet cut loose within the tropospheric polar vortex towards the equinox. Big cracks are beginning to appear :)
by JasmineStorm
Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I see temp mean August records were broken overnight over Antarctica in the upper stratosphere.

SAM index now unprecedented negative at those levels for the forecast period ahead. The jet stream chaos when this comes towards the surface will be incredible.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I am watching for Tropopause lowering :D Unless the big one is still coming, the vortex split at the weekend appeared rather weak and short lived (though 3 small vortices for a few hrs @ 70hpa). Any updates on forecast temps for Friday at 10hpa JS?? EC is still holding a peak of around 4c @10 hPa o...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 306
Views: 12306

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

The first downward zonal attack from the SSW to commence at the start of September into the troposphere. NZ maybe first cab off the rank. Volatility within medium term models runs will now ramp up. The follow up downward zonal attacks look to be in the 2nd half of September. All eyes now shift to tr...