Search found 1628 matches

by JasmineStorm
Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May
Replies: 1
Views: 64

Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

I thought we might as well create a thread to separate this event from the current April weather, as there is going to be plenty to discuss. As usual with these major synoptic scale systems, the upper low will call all of the shots. 120 hours out, models differ on the exact location of where the cut...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:34 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

EC going for an early May haymaker. Large cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex that cuts off a surface low over NSW/Vic. It then gets the moisture advection machine cranking off the Tasman into a convergence zone heading into central and Gippsland. Needs a few more runs but other models are a...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:58 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

EC going for an early May haymaker. Large cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex that cuts off a surface low over NSW/Vic. It then gets the moisture advection machine cranking off the Tasman into a convergence zone heading into central and Gippsland. Needs a few more runs but other models are al...
by JasmineStorm
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Btw the issue with our rain is not so much the dry spells, but the lack of sustained wet ones. We’ve always had droughts, but they used to be largely part of the boom and bust cycle which is normal in our climate as the IOD and ENSO lurch from wet to dry to wet. We’ve “lost” the the recovery booms....
by JasmineStorm
Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

That's interesting Jasmine. It's good to know we're not in unchartered territory, although I think we've suffered quite a lot this time due to the extreme heat in summer. I wonder what the picture will look like when we include April? If we have no more rain in April, it will go well into the top 1...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

JS, have just googled it all to understand those charts (which I now do). I could only find the phase diagram for 12 Mar to 20 April on the BOM site. Have I missed something? The BoM's view is up until yesterday for MJO and not the model projection. Here is the projected 16 day EC ensemble view lin...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

75 separate model runs across EC and GFS on the 12Z run are signalling a strong MJO phase into the eastern Indian Ocean at the start of May. If they verify, this will deliver increased moisture into any upper low that cuts off from polar region in the first 2 weeks of May. Show time seems to be gett...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

I actually had a look at BoM data recently on this long term topic at the nearest long term station to here, Malmsbury reservoir dating back to 1872. Here are the driest starts to the year in order. 2019 is currently 14th associated with this BoM data. January to March 1882 - 6mm 1965 - 20mm 1967 - ...
by JasmineStorm
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2615

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Not much to report on from here, very boring. Underground water is still flowing strong, so plenty of water for the property. Models picked up that monster upper trough very well but got its position wrong a week back with it propagating early towards W.A now. Currently looks awesome on the sat pic,...
by JasmineStorm
Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: 2018/2019 Possible upcoming weather events
Replies: 39
Views: 11163

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Currently a decent negative SAM and a MJO pulse in late April around the eastern Indian Ocean. This type of set up favours the spawning of mid latitude upper and surface cut off lows probably around 2 weeks from now in early May.
by JasmineStorm
Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3209

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

EC, GFS and Icon 00z run producing a big upper low that spawns a cyclonic surface cut off low around Vic, late Easter. Warm moisture advection water bomb on the back end. Large Autumn break if they hold and verify :) EC has liked this scenario a few times now.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3209

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

No much going on here, just waiting for the Autumn break now. Should get a handy drop from that upper low on Sunday. EC starting to show an Aussie bight cyclonic gyre with associated sting jet around Easter. Atmospheric river fed from the Indian ocean with interacting subtropical and polar jets over...
by JasmineStorm
Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3850

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

20 to 23c degree difference from the surface of the bay and 850 hPa today. Cold convection heaven. Totals are going to rack up around Melbourne's east and SE. Too south westerly for up here but might get a few mil.
by JasmineStorm
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Humid with showers and storms, followed by strong front: March 22-26
Replies: 93
Views: 3771

Re: Humid with showers and storms, followed by strong front: March 22-26

The V-notch echo has appeared on the 6pm radar in Melbourne's east.
by JasmineStorm
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Humid with showers and storms, followed by strong front: March 22-26
Replies: 93
Views: 3771

Re: Humid with showers and storms, followed by strong front: March 22-26

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:55 pm
Big storm just exploded over the middle burbs of Melbourne. Went through it on the train - raindrops the size of "soggy" golf balls. Nice convergence zone supporting this, so hopefully it continues to grow.
That cell currently has passed -60c on the cloud tops
by JasmineStorm
Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Another long warm spell, with showers. March 15-23
Replies: 36
Views: 2532

Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

The monsoon gyre has spun a tropical cyclone peak hour. GFS showing two cat 5's at the same time on Saturday morning with Trevor and Veronica. IMO for us, it all comes down to the stength of the ridge and where Trevor and Veronica are positioned. I think one thing is almost certain, some very dry ar...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:50 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Another long warm spell, with showers. March 15-23
Replies: 36
Views: 2532

Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

The BoM named TC Trevor this morning in the Coral sea. EC projecting Trevor to become a cat 5 in the gulf heading towards NT / QLD border within the week. Major Polar low heading equatorward in the bight at the same time. Subtropical and polar jets will meet at some point. Models will go wild if moi...
by JasmineStorm
Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Another long warm spell, with showers. March 15-23
Replies: 36
Views: 2532

Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Not much to report on from here. Our water catchment (Coliban water) still sitting around 65% this morning with the main dam at 75%, so plenty of water for the towns before the southern wet season starts . The same water catchment was near zero in 2007 during the Millennium drought. I drought proofe...
by JasmineStorm
Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:36 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: 2018/2019 Possible upcoming weather events
Replies: 39
Views: 11163

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Currently a significant negative SAM. EC showing the decent monsoon pulse into the middle of March with a MJO phase coming into the Maritime continent. Something big is brewing for the middle of March in the mid latitudes. Continuing on from the arrival of the monsoon lows in the next week, the jet...