The Australian Weather Forum

Check out the Doppler wind, clearly a big chance to go boom.

Trigger has been lacking around the CBD but it is now on. Outflow and the change about to converge over inner NW suburbs it "could" get wild very very soon!!!

Inner western suburbs had close to 50mm.

Steering is weak so the complex boundaries are going to drive activity now. Areas north of the bay should see rapid development very soon.

It's about to get WILD!!!!

Outflow propagating through the bay now towards the city!!!! Expecting this to be a big arvo for metro now. Could be some damage around for sure in the next 6 hours.

The ants believe it's going to rain pretty good.

Hi all,

Looking at the radar, satellite and obs it looks like the heavy precip from the wraparound is heading a fair bit further east than in the models. Batten down the hatches around Melbourne and the bayside suburbs, looking hectic for the 6 hours from 6pm-midnight.

Looks thundery in the city now.

Significant discrepancies in the models for the rain overnight tonight across the state ranging from 5-40 mm for Melbourne. Only time will tell I guess.

Wallan, Macedon, Sunbury area got rapid development.....

OK outflow now pushing north along the East coast of the bay from Chelsea up through Moorabin. Expect rapid development in the next 15-45 around Brighton, Clayton, St Kilda if it is going to pop. This is the trigger that was needed.

Cell with sparks now moving offshore around Edithvale. More development inland and also to the north of the city. Still very much on in my eyes, if 6 pm comes and goes without any major development then it may be curtains. If something goes up before then it'll propagate more cells around the bay fo...

As expected the cells have collapsed well before reaching Geelong!!!! Terrible forecasting by the BOM.

Folks living in and around Melbourne CBD hold on to your hats as this thing could be about to blow!!!

Not convinced the storms will make it into the Geelong area as there is a fair amount of CIN due to the seabreeze. Much more likely is that the outflow will propagate into the seabreeze developing storms around the Northern burbs. Convection really starting to crank in the eastern burbs now as expec...

I think the BOM storm forecast is very oversimplified for today. North and East of Melbourne looks to be on, gentle Seabreeze developing on the east of the bay. Gonna go boom soon.

Very much looking on for around Melbourne.

Current synoptics have me thinking that around Melbourne will have some.fairly heavy stuff the next few days. Hit and miss and very tight gradients though where storms pulse and collapse due to weak steering with debris having an impact. Has me thinking of days in Florida as a kid when storms pulsed...

I've just taken a real close look at a range of models for my area (inner SE suburbs) and I'm now very interested in tomorrow as a potential severe weather day. The key components are in place across a wide area but the local details are what will count in the end due to weak steering and initiation...