Search found 1897 matches

by StratoBendigo
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:55 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 15
Views: 306

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

And back to 12mm according to 00z GFS for here. That's more like it, none of this stupid 80mm on other models.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:11 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 15
Views: 306

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Now 18z GFS has drunk the kool-aid and reckons 50mm here. Nope.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:46 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 15
Views: 306

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Hmmm - I don't dare guess. For the last event, Ballarat was down for 'possible heavy falls' in the BOM forecast a day out, and ended up with 8mm (we got 4mm). I do despair of model accuracy over the last month - for example, EC has gone from 11mm for Ballarat on Friday, to 51mm, in one run! And it'...
by StratoBendigo
Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:11 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3566

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Yeah, I'm not hopeful either. The millenium drought was more fun than this La Nina. I know it skews NSW/QLD in terms of activity, but c'mon. The only interesting weather down here was that thunderstorm the other week that brought some nice rumbles and 10mm of rain. The trough LOOKS like it's going ...
by StratoBendigo
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3566

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Mike wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:49 pm
LOL EC has 74mm for my place on Friday....
Lol, EC has 120mm for here on Friday. Divide it by 5 for something resembling what will really happen.
by StratoBendigo
Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3566

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Shallow change along the west coast this morning. Still quite warm and humid in Apollo Bay atm, but not hot. Rain probably won't start until around dinner time today.
by StratoBendigo
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:02 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3566

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Yep, forecast looks good for rain still. Even BOM PME is onboard.

I've been at Apollo Bay. Much cooler than inland and waves were very dumpy yesterday. Swell has come a long way away.
by StratoBendigo
Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:16 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3566

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Satpic looks the goods. Ex-TC over WA really is in the right spot. EC reckons 60mm over the next week. Others less optimistic.
by StratoBendigo
Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3566

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Seeing everything from 15 to 70mm in the different forecast models for the next 10 days. Previous form suggests we will get less than 20mm.

If you want to see an out-of-control rainfall forecast, see 00z Access-G for the Gulf of Carpentaria... 4000mm+ anyone?
by StratoBendigo
Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3566

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Hmmm, fire danger is going to be a concern here. We had a big grassfire not far from here today at Graytown. Took out a hay and machinery shed. A couple of houses were saved fortunately.

It's out the other side that's got me interested. Hints of a big tropical system or two at the end of the month.
by StratoBendigo
Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:29 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

MTD - 4mm. Nothing here for the past 2 weeks.

We might get something next week from the remnants of a possible WA cyclone. Probably just dribs and drabs.
by StratoBendigo
Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Had some coldies drift over here this afternoon. But it was all virga and evaporated before it hit the ground. Extended GFS forecast shows potential for a cyclone impacting Sthn Qld/Nthn NSW around Australia Day, with the aftermath making things interesting here. It'll probably disappear in the next...
by StratoBendigo
Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:25 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

La-Nina? Nope, just bad duststorms North of Broken Hill today:
https://twitter.com/SarahJMcConnell/sta ... 92449?s=19
by StratoBendigo
Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:55 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Absolutely no rain in any of the forecasts for the rest of January. This summer will likely be drier than last year, and we're meant to be in a moderate La Nina? Pathetic.
by StratoBendigo
Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Very windy here - gusting to 60 km/h. Already a few small grassfires have broken out.
by StratoBendigo
Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:45 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11486

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Not much green grass left around here now. More dust than anything in our desert. Only 36mm of rain in the past 8 weeks.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11486

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Another 4mm to 9am pushes us close to 50mm. A real split in the haves and have nots for this one - very frustrating for those who missed out and hope they make it up with the next event. Generally, La Ninas are a mixed bag for us, and sometimes we are just too far west to benefit. A negative IOD is...
by StratoBendigo
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:35 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11486

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Event total - 4mm (for 15 min on Saturday afternoon). It's very dry here. In fact our 6 month rainfall (July-Dec 2020) was in the 3rd decile. Hopeless for a so-called La-Nina.
by StratoBendigo
Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:29 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11486

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Probably worth noting that mid-January looks like it might be hideously hot for Northern Vic.