Search found 1581 matches

by StratoBendigo
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Series of troughs then a deep low: April 1-5
Replies: 13
Views: 536

Re: Series of troughs then a deep low: April 1-5

A good opportunity for the new radar at Wimmera to get a workout too:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR952.loop.shtml#skip
by StratoBendigo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Settled week then rain? 23-31 March
Replies: 28
Views: 1386

Re: Settled week then rain? 23-31 March

Perhaps 5mm today.

Looks like a substantial cold front late in the week. Next weekend will be cold with probably some snow flurries on the Alps.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

wobbie wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:12 pm
This is just an amazing 2020 so far. What's this going to do for the Hume Dam do we think?
It's only 15% at present. Some small rises in the Murray River upstream, but we'll need follow up rains through winter.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

42mm in the gauge. A great result.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

GFS 6Z got falls over 100mm next 24 hours in parts of east central including Melbourne’s outer northeast and Yarra Valley :o 3mm here so far. DP is now up to 14C so getting muggy. GFS is way overestimating rain totals. ICON a more realistic 15mm predicted tonight for here. Only 5mm in gauge atm. 25...
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

The band that hit Ivanhoe appears to be tracking Hay - Deniliquin - Kyabram - Seymour. That'll miss us.

Raining at present. Almost 10mm so far.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

GFS 6Z got falls over 100mm next 24 hours in parts of east central including Melbourne’s outer northeast and Yarra Valley :o 3mm here so far. DP is now up to 14C so getting muggy. GFS is way overestimating rain totals. ICON a more realistic 15mm predicted tonight for here. Only 5mm in gauge atm.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Just 4mm so far. Hopefully more but the radar doesn't look great atm.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

00Z GFS has 40mm now for us. Today has been frustrating though. It's trying to rain but just can't at the moment.

As for Birdsville earlier today:
https://twitter.com/birdsvilleraces/sta ... 0974642176
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

One things that worries me is an injection of dry desert air from the Northwest that's currently sitting over central South Australia. That killed our last big tropical system in January (the mega-disappointing January 19-20 system which promised a deluge and delivered nothing).
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Just started raining lightly here. Mildura has scored 23mm already, which indicates that the heavy rain is falling somewhat West of many forecast models.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:32 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

12z GFS has moved it further West again.

We might be in with a shot. Ironically 5-6th March was rather memorable 10 years ago too...
by StratoBendigo
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Yes, EC for the win. Still anything from 2 to 100mm is possible.
by StratoBendigo
Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

This morning's forecast models have wobbled back East. On the edge of nothing or 80mm.

I'm back to watering the plants again...
by StratoBendigo
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Certainly an upgrade overnight for us. We're still "on-the-edge" of the system this Thursday-Friday.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14544

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

EC looks bonkers. 6mm on Sunday night then 85 mm in the landphoon....

Other forecast models not that keen.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 35952

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Latest BOM climate forecast for Autumn. Hopefully a decent drink for Southern Australia:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/ ... h/12005560

Again, this doesn't surprise me given that this year feels so much like 1995 all over again so far.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Mild to warm, then some rain: 22-26 Feb
Replies: 51
Views: 6910

Re: Mild to warm, then some rain: 22-26 Feb

Nearly broke a Feb minimum record of 4.0c here. Got down to 4.7c!

Redesdale just broke it's lowest Feb temp with 2.6c this morning.

Next week's system perhaps should be called "Landphoon Esther"...