Search found 1260 matches

by StratoBendigo
Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Gordon wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:39 am
I don't know why I torture myself like this, but ACCESS-G now broadly agrees with EC re a cut-off low over Vic late next week:
Image
And completely gone on 18Z run. I have very little confidence at present.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

Sea surface anomalies don't give me much confidence for rain in the coming weeks. Much cooler than average water off WA at present, and looks locked in.

There's going to be some savage frosts this winter IMO.
by StratoBendigo
Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

It's looking pretty cold from Friday onwards. May 2-6 is shaping up for a cold outbreak too...
by StratoBendigo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?
Replies: 87
Views: 2616

Re: Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30?

18Z GFS has the front through a little earlier on Sunday. Still next to no rain. The total lack of moisture and cloud over Northern WA has been the heat engine over the past few months for us. Interestingly, the Stirling Ranges in WA might get snow this Friday night. Potentially the earliest reporte...
by StratoBendigo
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

00Z GFS has faded away to no rainfall in the coming week. Pathetic. Our 48 month rainfall total at the end of this month is going to look diabolical (~712 mm). Ran the numbers and only these May-Apr totals over a 2 year period were worse: 2008 - equal with 712 mm 2003 - worst ever with just 596 mm. ...
by StratoBendigo
Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

Avalon on 32c this late in April. Revolting. (I think that'll be a late season record, although notably there was a 31.5c on 20/4/2010, and 31.8c at Laverton on 26/4/1962).

And a bad bushfire near Ballarat:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-16/ ... r/11019788
by StratoBendigo
Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

The Cold front later this week is peaking way out West under WA and fading away to next to nothing here.

GFS and EC are still keen for some rain keen this time next week. AXS-G says nothing but High pressure ridging.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14

No end to the dry here.

Easter Weekend is looking awful. Might even be Total Fire Bans I reckon.

We're just swinging from blowtorch northerlies to cool and frosty and back to blowtorch northerlies at present. A bit like Autumn 2002.
by StratoBendigo
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:51 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - ?

Almost our first frost for the year this morning. Got down to 2.4c.

Not a cloud in the sky (as is normal).
by StratoBendigo
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - ?

I think our season ahead hinges on the following: 1. Indian ocean NW of Australia needs to warm up to provide middle and upper moisture - it's high time it switched to warm. 2. Central Pacific needs to cool to allow low level pacific moisture to enter Australia to support rain coming in from the NW...
by StratoBendigo
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - ?

0.5mm here last night. AWS got 3mm.

Pretty much useless. Looks like a blowtorch next week.
by StratoBendigo
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - ?

Still no sign of rain for us. More raised dust yesterday. I haven't seen the countryside this bad for over a decade.
by StratoBendigo
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Weather Events & Observations
Topic: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14
Replies: 70
Views: 3210

Re: Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - ?

Still not much to get excited about :( maybe a shower tomorrow. Warm, almost hot, one today. In stats I wish we didn’t break, thw city has had the driest start to a year on record for Melbourne (42mm). We're on 25mm YTD. 1923 and 1965 still the driest start to a year up to April 5 on record for us ...
by StratoBendigo
Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3851

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

No sign of real rain for us at all in the next 10 days or so. Endless clear skies.

It does however look like a gradual cool down next week into mid-high teen maximums...
by StratoBendigo
Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3851

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Nice to see cooler weather at last. But this coming Friday looks like another total fire ban day and temps over 30c with a blowtorch Northerly. Ugh....
by StratoBendigo
Sat Mar 30, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3851

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

Just a whole lot more raised dust today in the desert that is Northern Vic.

Horrible.
by StratoBendigo
Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3851

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

The sun is shining brightly, a light breeze, just a light shower last night for 30 seconds which didn't register in the gauge.

A nothing system here. Next!

P.S. I'll still be watering the garden (or what's left of it) until June at this rate.
by StratoBendigo
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3851

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

No rain so far and it doesn't even look like it will at all now. Long range forecast grim too.

The drought rolls on....
by StratoBendigo
Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3851

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

No rain. Just wind, dust, and filth. Several more months of this garbage imo.

Incidentally, bad grassfire near Ballarat is already destroying property: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victo ... 645bd4bcf4
by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2
Replies: 85
Views: 3851

Re: Strong front/cold outbreak: March 29-April 2

00Z GFS reckons just 5mm here, and 10mm for much of Melbourne. EC has a very pessimistic 1mm here.

YTD is currently 26mm. Driest first qtr of a year since 2004.