Search found 2457 matches

by stevco123
Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2616

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Developing overhead. Me thinks radar will explode very shortly with nice colours
by stevco123
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2616

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Next to no chance making it into the metro area.
by stevco123
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 60
Views: 2616

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

My favourite record is the "not hitting 30" record.

2001 was the year, and didn't happen until December 21 from memory
by stevco123
Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

10mm more in the gauge post 9am so cracked the 50mm (total is 52mm). Great fall. Not enough to cause problems, but deep soaking which will keep it nice and damp now for the rest of spring (unless November is a shocker). Went for a walk in the local national park and lots of water in the seeps and c...
by stevco123
Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Taking longer than expected to clear.

This one has finally delivered.

James is missing. He must have fainted from excitement 😄😄😄
by stevco123
Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

17mm here so far. It'll do i guess. :)

Still raining so should get another 3 to 4 mils
by stevco123
Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:47 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

If this fails, it will make it 5 or 6 events in a row that have overestimated totals.

Good to tick along, but it further deteriorates my confidence in models.
by stevco123
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 5262

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

This is nothing like 2010/11. In that event, when 5mm was forecat, you could count on at least 25mm.
by stevco123
Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 4226

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

another fail in terms of predictions, i had to laugh at the storm charts being shown on various weather groups showing severe storms for the east of Melbourne, lo and behold this afternoon it was changed to further east :P As I said earlier I am not sure why people still feel these predictions are ...
by stevco123
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 4226

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

So the main consensus is it will be a mostly fine day tomorrow 🤣🤣
by stevco123
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 4226

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

It's a risk thing. They'd rather forecast storms and not have them happen, rather than not predict them and then have massive damage from an an "unexpected" storm.

That's understandable, which is why they put the term "possible" in front of "storms".
by stevco123
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 4226

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

I hope there is actual storms this time - we seem to keep predicting them but nothing happens, whats different tomorrow that its more likely than the last weeks/month where they always failed? The best way to approach storm forecasts is to simply ignore them and not get excited, especially in winte...
by stevco123
Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 4226

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

A few spits and spats down here
by stevco123
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 10257

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Fizzer overnight here, nothing but windy filth! :cussing: Unfortunately nowhere near the amount of rain I was hoping for, but guess that's to be expected in the boredom zone. Will be back to watering plants early next week. At least it will be mainly dry for my son's special day tomorrow (his birth...
by stevco123
Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 10257

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Hmm... Could well be something in it still. Great to see it developing overhead on the radar, and can definitely feel the intensity rising outside.

15mm for the event now.

Gimme 25mm total before 9am tomorrow and I promise I won't call you a dud anymore :D
by stevco123
Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 10257

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

I'm biting my tongue but I'm gonna have to call it. FIZZER.

The wraparound is crap , as is the whole event for Melbourne.

10mm. That's it. The radar showing rain over me currently but it ain't raining 🤣🤣
by stevco123
Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 10257

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

BoM needs to really work on their forecasting. 95% rain tonight, but guessing 1 to 2mm tomorrow.

And how much tonight?????
by stevco123
Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 10257

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

What the???

Developing out of nowhere.

POURING here too
by stevco123
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 10257

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Is forecasting a mere 10% of the original progs classified as a fizzer to anyone else? 3 to 8mm, compared to 30 to 80 (roughly) just days ago 😡😡😡