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by Gordon
Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:20 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 10
Views: 647

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

At least GFS and EC are finally agreeing on decent rain for us (25mm plus) and a fair bit of Vic early next week, instead of one on/ one off.

Other models are mixed, reflected in a more modest WATL chart this morning. Keen to see if ACCESS gets on board, which it hasn't really at this stage.
by Gordon
Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:01 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 10
Views: 647

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

This morning's WATL has something for Vic (at last!), although you know it's dry when the possibility of 5-10mm several days out catches your attention!

Edit: individual models certainly are a mess though - latest EC has us down for 170mm in the next 8 days, GFS almost zero!
by Gordon
Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another long dry spell for most: March 22-
Replies: 10
Views: 647

Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

Yes a bit of drizzle here too, though barely a dust settler.

If I'm feeling desperate enough, it seems there's something in a few of the models towards the end of Easter. However, on recent form, it would be a big call to trust anything that far out.
by Gordon
Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:51 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

Hmmm... our hopes for this system seem to be fading with every model run. Synoptics and moisture look good, but for west central Vic at least, the computer says no.

Seem to be in a bit of a no rainfall hole lately, with rain to the west, east, north - and even south... but not here. :(
by Gordon
Thu Mar 14, 2024 7:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20
Replies: 21
Views: 1204

Becoming warm ahead of a stronger cold front: March 16-20

12 C and drizzly here - feels quite cold after our mini March heatwave. Models are still trying to give us something significant midweek, but my confidence is a little shot after the last 6 weeks!
by Gordon
Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:40 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

hillybilly wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:15 pm Looks like VIC might finally get some rain :) though looks like 1-5mm for most. Maybe the odd heavier fall the next two days. Always nice to be reminded it can rain.
Yep, and only took 12 days from the start of the thread :o !

And yes, time for a new thread I'd say.
by Gordon
Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:08 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

A misty 16 C here now and a few spots of rain. Had to brush the cobwebs off a jacket :).
by Gordon
Sat Mar 09, 2024 6:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Still under 30° at my place this arvo. Just! Won't stay that way for long. Hate this kind of late heat and dry weather. Horrible. Yes, I normally relax once Feb ends, but once a decade or so this sort of rubbish rears up. At least BOM are hanging onto some sort of hope for mid-week onwards: almost ...
by Gordon
Thu Mar 07, 2024 2:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Yes there's a sniff of something in a week or so, with a few models now in loose agreement for significant rain (20mm plus) although they vary in where it will hit.

Will be interesting to see what BOM has to say in its afternoon forecast updates...
by Gordon
Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:16 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Meanwhile, the rain seems to be doing that dry spell thing of appearing on the models many days out, and then disappearing after a couple more runs.

I guess a rain event will have to stick eventually, though that chart I posted at the beginning of this thread is starting to look like a flop :?
by Gordon
Thu Feb 29, 2024 7:11 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: When will it rain? 1 March -?
Replies: 43
Views: 2172

When will it rain? 1 March -?

Seems like as good a thread title as any given our February flash drought. Nothing much in the 'regular' forecast. However, to torture myself, I just had a look at BOM's latest climate forecasts, which are promising for 4-10 March. (Don't know if that's a good or bad thing with their poor record lat...
by Gordon
Thu Feb 29, 2024 1:19 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot again: February 26-
Replies: 21
Views: 1474

Becoming hot again: February 26-

snowfall wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:14 am We're only on about 12mm for the month. Very much below average.
Yes the tap has been turned off for us as well - we're finishing Feb on 8mm. El Nino on the wane and positive IOD back to neutral... and it stops raining :?
by Gordon
Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot again: February 26-
Replies: 21
Views: 1474

Becoming hot again: February 26-

Yep, 31C and windy here now. But still grateful for the much-reduced big fire risk window.
by Gordon
Wed Feb 28, 2024 2:56 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot again: February 26-
Replies: 21
Views: 1474

Becoming hot again: February 26-

A max here so far (3pm) of 26C feels like a win, even though temps are likely to rise further.
by Gordon
Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:40 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot again: February 26-
Replies: 21
Views: 1474

Becoming hot again: February 26-

Full cloud, 23C, light winds and a few spots or rain here. BOM's max temp for us revised down to 32C from 35C a few days ago. We've dried out a lot in the last few weeks, so not underestimating the impact/ fire risk with the strong winds forecast for later today, but with this cooler, damper start, ...
by Gordon
Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:30 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm to hot with mostly dry changes. February 20-28
Replies: 24
Views: 1578

Warm to hot with mostly dry changes. February 20-28

Base of the pyro cumulus cloud now extends right over our place, and we're at least 80km to the east of the fire.Image
by Gordon
Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:00 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm to hot with mostly dry changes. February 20-28
Replies: 24
Views: 1578

Warm to hot with mostly dry changes. February 20-28

Smoke cloud on the radar growing rapidly :(. Image Smoke-filled sky here now.
by Gordon
Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:18 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot ahead of a change with possible rain and storms: February 10-14
Replies: 45
Views: 2493

Becoming hot ahead of a change with possible rain and storms: February 10-14

Suspect there are a few reports yet to come in from members in badly storm-affected areas who have no communications at all. Was talking to a mate near Eildon yesterday who said there was a fair amount of damage up that way, and then his phone cut out - no contact since. No doubt the phone tower ran...
by Gordon
Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:53 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot ahead of a change with possible rain and storms: February 10-14
Replies: 45
Views: 2493

Becoming hot ahead of a change with possible rain and storms: February 10-14

A bit of drizzle and 8C now - what a contrast with yesterday!
by Gordon
Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot ahead of a change with possible rain and storms: February 10-14
Replies: 45
Views: 2493

Becoming hot ahead of a change with possible rain and storms: February 10-14

Just got power back after losing it at 2.30pm. Storms were spectacular here but evidently nothing compared to some locations! 'Normal' strong wind, a brief bit of hail, and 7mm of rain.