The Australian Weather Forum

We largely missed out on the ECL part of this system, with only 2mm. But a better result with the cold front, bringing 10mm - quite a bit more than the 1-5mm forecast. I do like it when forecast rain totals are underestimated :). Hope it's a sign of a shift back to wetter conditions. (Nice to see a ...

Looks like at least a week of cool and damp weather for most of Vic, starting tomorrow with rain barely creeping over the border, but becoming more widespread and significant over the weekend as the low centre nears far East Gippsland. Then a cold front on Monday sets up the remainder of the week fo...

Another 5mm here from showers. Certainly does seem like summer straight to winter, and dust to mud .

Worth a new thread for the likely ECL etc?

hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:27 am Not so great for southern Tasmania. Progs basically picked this. Had just 6mm here so far. Freshens things up, but not enough so far.

Radar looking a bit better for you now I hope hillybilly? Although I always find it bloody hard to tell in Tassie with the topographical detail

45mm here. Amazing how widespread decent (25mm plus) totals are through a large swathe of VIctoria. Great system!

25mm here, so that's the autumn break (the local definition being a single fall of an old-fashioned inch between St Patricks Day and Anzac Day.) Definitely a pass, with anything extra from now being a bonus.

After an initial thundery downpour, we've settled into moderate rain here with the odd heavier burst. 16mm so far.

6mm already in the first 12hours of April! Double my March total! Nice Macedonian - hopefully the first mms of many for you! Only a few spots here so far, but radar and progs are promising. The sky is looking very volatile. Just had a quick check of our 28 years of records. We recorded just 1.5mm f...

From my post on Good Friday: 'Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I can recall.' Liking the latest SWW (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml). Text includes: &qu...

8 of the 10 models I can see give us at least 20mm plus Monday/ Tuesday, and that includes EC, GFS and ACCESS. Some are triple that. Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I...

At least GFS and EC are finally agreeing on decent rain for us (25mm plus) and a fair bit of Vic early next week, instead of one on/ one off.

Other models are mixed, reflected in a more modest WATL chart this morning. Keen to see if ACCESS gets on board, which it hasn't really at this stage.

This morning's WATL has something for Vic (at last!), although you know it's dry when the possibility of 5-10mm several days out catches your attention!

Edit: individual models certainly are a mess though - latest EC has us down for 170mm in the next 8 days, GFS almost zero!

Yes a bit of drizzle here too, though barely a dust settler.

If I'm feeling desperate enough, it seems there's something in a few of the models towards the end of Easter. However, on recent form, it would be a big call to trust anything that far out.

Hmmm... our hopes for this system seem to be fading with every model run. Synoptics and moisture look good, but for west central Vic at least, the computer says no.

Seem to be in a bit of a no rainfall hole lately, with rain to the west, east, north - and even south... but not here.

12 C and drizzly here - feels quite cold after our mini March heatwave. Models are still trying to give us something significant midweek, but my confidence is a little shot after the last 6 weeks!

hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:15 pm Looks like VIC might finally get some rain though looks like 1-5mm for most. Maybe the odd heavier fall the next two days. Always nice to be reminded it can rain.

Yep, and only took 12 days from the start of the thread !

And yes, time for a new thread I'd say.

A misty 16 C here now and a few spots of rain. Had to brush the cobwebs off a jacket .

Still under 30° at my place this arvo. Just! Won't stay that way for long. Hate this kind of late heat and dry weather. Horrible. Yes, I normally relax once Feb ends, but once a decade or so this sort of rubbish rears up. At least BOM are hanging onto some sort of hope for mid-week onwards: almost ...

Yes there's a sniff of something in a week or so, with a few models now in loose agreement for significant rain (20mm plus) although they vary in where it will hit.

Will be interesting to see what BOM has to say in its afternoon forecast updates...

Meanwhile, the rain seems to be doing that dry spell thing of appearing on the models many days out, and then disappearing after a couple more runs.

I guess a rain event will have to stick eventually, though that chart I posted at the beginning of this thread is starting to look like a flop