Search found 2075 matches

by Gordon
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

I emptied our half full but dirty water tanks in anticipation of this event, so I'm hoping this comes through before the low disappears... Finding the radar very difficult to read/ follow; about 1mm in the last 24hrs here.That blob south of the heads would 'normally' wrap around and head up towards ...
by Gordon
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Didjman wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:52 pm
Can someone save the radar pic for me plse? I am on mobile for obvious reasons
See above :).
by Gordon
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

As per above, not often you see a hook like this; and on the 128km too, not the 64km - saved for posterity.

Image
by Gordon
Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Thanks HB, makes me feel a bit more confident, as does the latest BOM 4-dayer which keeps the low over Vic.

Also, Wednesday 10pm on the same chart looks impressive, with the lower pressure pushing well north just west of Vic, rather than the 'clipper' some charts are suggesting.
by Gordon
Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-24th Jan 2020

Unbelievable divergence for us between 18Z GFS, and 18Z ACCESS and EC so close to D-Day(s). The former gives us about 10mm, the others 50-70mm :o . Btw I tried unsuccessfully to extended the date range out to Friday, as there doesn't appear to be any obvious break in the wet weather potential until ...
by Gordon
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Just comparing yesterday's BOM forecast chart for 10pm Monday... http://flystream.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Chart-20-Jan-issued-16-Jan-1.png With today's forecast chart for 10pm Monday... http://flystream.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Chart-20-Jan-2020-2.jpg I'm struck by how little change the...
by Gordon
Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Surprised at how quite heavy drizzle has set in after a fine start - usually it's the other away around here; might crack another mm or two before the real rain (hopefully) returns later in the weekend.

A day to light the fire again with 7C overnight and just 13C now.
by Gordon
Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Well I managed to miss all the action at home, but watched some spectacular storms from down on the Mornington Peninsula.

Got home to find 21mm in the gauge; so far, so good :).
by Gordon
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 331
Views: 17155

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

JasmineStorm wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:02 am
JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:05 pm
The floods are coming.
Nice call JS - as usual :).
by Gordon
Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020
Replies: 367
Views: 14462

Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Had to get this one going as the later part of the date range especially, looks really interesting. Warm but fairly settled at first, then rain creeping into central and eastern Vic from Wednesday onwards. East looks the main beneficiary, though trough 'wiggle' on this is constantly changing and shi...
by Gordon
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10 2020
Replies: 56
Views: 2226

Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

A mere 12.5mm here, but more than I was expecting, and our first double figure total since November! Not that I'm complaining, we had a pretty good 2019.

Now hoping East Gippsland and NE get something.
by Gordon
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10 2020
Replies: 56
Views: 2226

Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

BOM not very keen on much rain for Melbourne over the next week (after today) It'll be interesting to watch the wobble with the trough from about next Tuesday. EC has been on again/ off again for us. At least eastern Vic seems very likely to get good rain, which is fantastic to see. Back on topic, ...
by Gordon
Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10 2020
Replies: 56
Views: 2226

Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

Real rain, real wind and big temp drop just hit us now, despite an hour or more of spits and cooler winds prior. Very much a two-stage front!
by Gordon
Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10 2020
Replies: 56
Views: 2226

Re: Becoming hot and windy ahead of a strong change: January 8-10

So good to finally be able to see potential rain on a semi-regular basis; still cool and cloudy here so the heat spike for us will be short. Clothes on the line are still damp after a day and a half - took about half an hour to dry them a week ago! (Looking like another significant system around the...
by Gordon
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020
Replies: 109
Views: 4059

Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Great to see those decent falls in Central. We were a tad too far west but still ended up with 9mm in total and thanks to the persistent cloud and cold weather, it's still very damp out. Better than I was expecting & good to be picking up some moisture from the tropics at last; hopefully this event ...
by Gordon
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020
Replies: 109
Views: 4059

Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

SAM has made this the most diametric start to summer I can remember. Extreme heat, chilly temps, extreme heat, chilly temps. But despite the chilly temps, Melbourne still ended December slightly above average, which shows just how hot it got at times. But now that the tropics are showing activity, ...
by Gordon
Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020
Replies: 109
Views: 4059

Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

tonycynic wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Will that 63.3 temp recorded in Cabramurra count as a record or get removed as an outlier?
It won't count.
by Gordon
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020
Replies: 109
Views: 4059

Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Progs upping rainfall totals a spilling it into central areas and the northwest. Most models now show 5-15mm east central, and 10-50mm for a line from about the Mallee to about Sale. Nice call from way back on Friday HB! I wasn't at all confident but it is turning into a useful day here with drizzl...
by Gordon
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020
Replies: 109
Views: 4059

Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Thanks for all the thoughts re my mate's place near Hotham. Some better news this morning with a property belonging to good friends near Khancoban safe, plus my brother's house up there. Phew!

Meanwhile 6mm and 8C here - hope some of that gets to the east asap!
by Gordon
Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020
Replies: 109
Views: 4059

Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Just heard from my mate near Hotham Airport - he left a while ago & has learnt he lost his house to ember attack; the change was about an hour too late for him :(. The fire map I was looking at was a couple of hours out of date (understandable with things changing so fast). Not so his neighbour who ...