Search found 2317 matches

by Gordon
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:13 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 13
Views: 254

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

They've been very poor for many months - especially wrt precipitation. Partially due to much less input data from airliners apparently. When I look at a forecast model I just divide rainfall by 4 for reality. If EC says 60mm, we might be lucky to get 15mm. [/quote] This is from last March but would...
by Gordon
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:41 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 13
Views: 254

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Hmmm - I don't dare guess. For the last event, Ballarat was down for 'possible heavy falls' in the BOM forecast a day out, and ended up with 8mm (we got 4mm). I do despair of model accuracy over the last month - for example, EC has gone from 11mm for Ballarat on Friday, to 51mm, in one run! And it's...
by Gordon
Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:34 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 76
Views: 3561

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Only 4mm here too if that's any consolation! One of those systems where every band and cell seemed to dodge us. Good to see some half-decent falls elsewhere though.
by Gordon
Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Reports of brief snow flurries from late afternoon yesterday around the Gordon area. Unverified at this stage I was around yesterday and only saw small hail and perhaps sleet; certainly no flakes. I guess anything is possible under an intense cell, but we were way too warm here at 620m asl - lowest...
by Gordon
Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Up to 6.5mm here from mainly short, sharp, thundery showers.

Also bursts of small hail from each cell - top temp 13C, mostly less than 11C. That's cold for mid January, even at 620m asl.
by Gordon
Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:55 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 3517

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

9C with gutsy cells punching through here: gales, rain & small hail, 2mm in about 5 minutes. Another one lining up.
by Gordon
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:01 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Another 4mm to 9am pushes us close to 50mm. A real split in the haves and have nots for this one - very frustrating for those who missed out and hope they make it up with the next event. Generally, La Ninas are a mixed bag for us, and sometimes we are just too far west to benefit. A negative IOD is ...
by Gordon
Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

I feel quite inadequate reporting another 10mm to 9am :). Pretty good result though, 41mm for the (extended) event and radar suggests it's not over yet. (PS: I'm another softie - the wood fire hasn't stopped here for a few days, but to be fair its consistently 10-13C, with no sun and no chance to wa...
by Gordon
Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Oh well, guess we can't avoid the heat forever - it is January after all. (At least ACCESS and GFS have a strong, rainy front showing up for 13 Jan so hopefully any hot, dry weather is short lived.) Meanwhile, some amazing stats from BOM coming in from BOM for this event :o : - 223mm for 2 days to 9...
by Gordon
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Snap! 4mm of heavy drizzle brings us to 31mm too. Turning into a decent start to Jan. (And the longer the heat stays away the better :))
by Gordon
Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:57 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Good to hear you got a nice drop Dane & Snowfall. Unfortunately the trough has moved East of here so not much more rain for me I think. . I'm struggling to get my head around this. Yesterday afternoon's forecast chart had the trough not reaching central til 10pm: http://flystream.com/wp-content/uplo...
by Gordon
Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:14 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Finally scored something decent, just catching the edge of last night's system, plus a direct hit from this morning's band to give us 25mm to 9am; 27mm for the event.

I'll call that a pass :). Anything from here on is a bonus.
by Gordon
Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

That band out west looks very impressive. Only 100km from the city now and moving east at a reasonable rate. Wonder if it will make it :?: Geez I hope so - I'm one of many playing '50 ways to miss a storm' atm. Had them form up almost overhead today, then explode just a few km south or east; wherea...
by Gordon
Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:47 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Dane wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:43 pm
[urlhttps://www.standard.net.au/story/7072926/south ... ued/?cs=12][/url]
30mm in 12 minutes is extraordinary!
by Gordon
Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:12 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Appear to be some pretty impressive storms on the radar in the Melbourne area now - east and west - that are outside the STW area?
by Gordon
Sat Jan 02, 2021 3:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Stroms in SW Vic WOW :o :o :o :o Just back buliding almost 50mm in an hour and not moving be a few 80 to 100mm falls out that way and major flash flooding will be major damage out there If wasnt for cirrus sheild be a big day in metro but showers and storms still going up under it so should be an i...
by Gordon
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:29 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Just noticed two interesting things: - BOM updated all Vic forecasts at 10am or a bit after (in our case I think the difference is in the thunderstorm info - up from possible to likely, and possibly severe?) - on the latest forecast charts, the trough is STILL back near the SA border at 10am tomorro...
by Gordon
Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:41 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

That's a fantastic total hillybilly, nudging 6ft of rain in the old money. Makes me almost embarrassed to report our 876.5mm for 2020 (25mm above average). Another good snow year though, with settled snow on 4 days, and a late fall on 25/10 - although that one didn't settle. Back to 2021, and we've ...
by Gordon
Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

I think the BOM storm forecast is very oversimplified for today. North and East of Melbourne looks to be on, gentle Seabreeze developing on the east of the bay. Gonna go boom soon. Yes, I wouldn't bet a decent cup of coffee on the forecasts atm - the system(s) look very messy and disorganised to me...
by Gordon
Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:34 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 11481

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Today's BOM thunderstorm forecast. West is best?

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