Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Search found 244 matches

by weathergasm
Wed Dec 13, 2023 8:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12
Replies: 76
Views: 7505

Re: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12

A few passing rumbles today here in Berwick, but despite the pretty amazing sounding and forecast this morning I did not have high hopes (trough too close to Melbourne for my liking) so I wasn’t disappointed. Last night’s storm was enough for me👌 If that trough was 100km or so further west at 9am th...
by weathergasm
Tue Dec 12, 2023 10:00 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12
Replies: 76
Views: 7505

Re: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12

Pretty decent CAPE should persist around Melbourne well into the evening. I would keep an eye on those storms around the northern outskirts. Edit: one of the better light shows in recent memory now taking place from here in Berwick :) Edit 2: quick video I took of the view from my back yard: https:/...
by weathergasm
Tue Dec 12, 2023 2:07 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12
Replies: 76
Views: 7505

Re: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12

Most recent sounding for Melbourne indicates a pretty low lifted index, and Windy.com has elevated CAPE values all around Melbourne this afternoon. It also just “feels” unstable - warm and humid and hazy on the surface with some high clouds around. Wouldn’t shock me at all to see some nice storms po...
by weathergasm
Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12
Replies: 76
Views: 7505

Re: Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12

Last sounding indicates some pretty marginal instability - did the BOM put the “possibly severe” qualifier in their forecast because whatever storms (not severe in and of themselves) pop up would coincide with these awful winds?
by weathergasm
Fri Apr 07, 2023 4:34 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: A deep low for Easter 2023
Replies: 60
Views: 7452

Re: A deep low for Easter 2023

hillybilly wrote: Fri Apr 07, 2023 3:22 pm Classic case of Melbourne atm being to close to the centre of the low. Everything spinning around it.
Precisely. I never buy into the hype when the low is pretty much exactly over Melbourne, particularly early in the day.
by weathergasm
Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:51 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Easterly trough with showers and storms: January 21-26
Replies: 66
Views: 6721

Re: Easterly trough with showers and storms: January 21-26

Got it good here in Ringwood. The dogs and myself were startled by several close CGs and the resulting whipcracks of thunder.

Unfortunately I was glued to the computer as I’m WFH, but still a great water for the garden!
by weathergasm
Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:00 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Easterly trough with showers and storms: January 21-26
Replies: 66
Views: 6721

Re: Easterly trough with showers and storms: January 21-26

Saw some pretty bubbly looking cumulus here in Ringwood around sunset. Wouldn’t shock me if some storms made it to the metro area tomorrow.
by weathergasm
Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:55 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January
Replies: 70
Views: 8291

Re: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January

Once I saw that trough creeping up the bay in the morning I was pretty sure it was over for the metro area. It was just a few hours too early unfortunately. I don’t blame the BoM for being pretty bullish about storms given the values the sounding was giving, I’m assuming the trough’s weird S-shape o...
by weathergasm
Mon Jan 02, 2023 12:24 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January
Replies: 70
Views: 8291

Re: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January

Currently at Frankston beach. A sea breeze seems to have moved in, and at the same time I'm looking at the radar and development has stoppes. I hope it's not one of those stupid days where the seabreeze kills chances of storms. It's been 20 years since Melbourne has had regular summer storms I coul...
by weathergasm
Mon Jan 02, 2023 12:17 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January
Replies: 70
Views: 8291

Re: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January

Going by doppler it appears the trough is traversing the bay and is at Laverton’s doorstep. A little bit too early for my liking, would prefer it to be about 50km west.
by weathergasm
Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:40 am
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January
Replies: 70
Views: 8291

Re: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January

Most recent Melbourne sounding (and I am looking at the right one this time!) has Lifted Index of -6.4 and Total Totals of 56. If you get a storm today it’ll likely be a doozy.
by weathergasm
Sat Dec 31, 2022 11:21 am
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January
Replies: 70
Views: 8291

Re: Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January

Most recent sounding indicates quite deep instability around Melbourne at present. Not a guarantee of storms of course, but looks better than yesterday for the metro area.

Edit: looked at the wrong city’s sounding, Melbourne’s is very marginal. Sorry!
by weathergasm
Sat Nov 19, 2022 4:11 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Vic - strong cold front with potential snow 19-22/11/22
Replies: 75
Views: 9402

Re: Vic - strong cold front with potential snow 19-22/11/22

Storms look great out west, but it’s a 1 in 50 shot they don’t flatten out and turn into a regular rain band by the time they get to Melbourne if history is any guide.
by weathergasm
Sat Nov 19, 2022 2:42 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Vic - strong cold front with potential snow 19-22/11/22
Replies: 75
Views: 9402

Re: Vic - strong cold front with potential snow 19-22/11/22

The most recent Melbourne skew t isn’t anything to write home about - about as stable as it gets - so you’d have to assume things in the atmosphere are much more dynamic out west. Adelaide’s sounding looks much more promising, storm-wise.
by weathergasm
Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:47 am
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th
Replies: 121
Views: 13841

Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Going by the water vapor image, all of Melbourne to just west of Geelong is on the wet side of something of a dry line, which is a good thing if you want storms.
by weathergasm
Mon Oct 24, 2022 11:53 am
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct
Replies: 148
Views: 16249

Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Doesn’t ‘feel’ like a severe storm day for Melbourne to me despite what the BOM forecast says. But what do I know.
by weathergasm
Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:32 am
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Lingering low with showers and rain 11-18 August
Replies: 90
Views: 7980

Re: Lingering low with showers and rain 11-18 August

Pretty unstable around Melbourne today according to most recent sounding.
by weathergasm
Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:52 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Cold front 18/4 then cool and showery
Replies: 37
Views: 5970

Re: Cold front 18/4 then cool and showery

Rain on the roof here in Box Hill. Feels like ages since I last heard it.
by weathergasm
Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:16 am
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Cold front 18/4 then cool and showery
Replies: 37
Views: 5970

Re: Cold front 18/4 then cool and showery

This summer was almost as bad as last summer for the lack of storms after the new year. La Niña didn’t do a hell of a lot for Melbourne, but then again it wasn’t a strong one. It has been an extremely boring run of weather for the last few months in my part of Melbourne, have basically completely tu...
by weathergasm
Sun Apr 03, 2022 1:09 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Vic - arrival of an East Coast Low from N NSW 29/3-4/4/22
Replies: 32
Views: 6171

Re: Vic - arrival of an East Coast Low from N NSW 29/3-4/4/22

It has been an incredibly boring run of weather in my part of Melbourne for the last two or months. Wake me up when something happens😆