Search found 166 matches

by weathergasm
Sun May 02, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Last gasp Warmth and Cut-off Low to start May 2021
Replies: 77
Views: 3643

Re: Last gasp Warmth and Cut-off Low to start May 2021

That brief thunderstorm that just went through Box Hill was tied for the best light show we have had for the last 12 months.

Very slim pickings recently...
by weathergasm
Sun May 02, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Last gasp Warmth and Cut-off Low to start May 2021
Replies: 77
Views: 3643

Re: Last gasp Warmth and Cut-off Low to start May 2021

The latest Skew-T from the BOM has higher instability values than I have seen for Melbourne in the last six months, at least as far as I can recall.

That said the 2020/2021 spring/summer was a pretty dismal “storm season”, so that doesn’t mean much.
by weathergasm
Sat May 01, 2021 4:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Last gasp Warmth and Cut-off Low to start May 2021
Replies: 77
Views: 3643

Re: Last gasp Warmth and Cut-off Low to start May 2021

Relative upgrade from the BOM this afternoon, talking up chance of storms for tomorrow afternoon, with slightly increased rain totals for the following two or three days.
by weathergasm
Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Long warm and dry spell: April 1-?
Replies: 25
Views: 2216

Re: Long warm and dry spell: April 1-?

BOM’s latest climate outlook doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence for good early-mid winter rainfall in central Victoria.
by weathergasm
Sun Mar 21, 2021 5:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?
Replies: 128
Views: 11014

Re: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?

It was never forecast to be a deluge for Melbourne, at least not by the BOM. Some of the models temporarily hinted at the possibility of moderate totals though.
by weathergasm
Thu Mar 18, 2021 7:06 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?
Replies: 128
Views: 11014

Re: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?

After the series of huge duds that happened in the lead up to the February dry spell, I’ll only begin believing when I see it on radar.
by weathergasm
Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Thundery days ahead of a strong front: March 11-14
Replies: 54
Views: 4926

Re: Thundery days ahead of a strong front: March 11-14

Accidentally clicked on the weather forecast for Darwin and almost got excited about the coming week😆
by weathergasm
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:03 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Cool end to summer with perhaps some showers: Feb 25-
Replies: 41
Views: 3723

Re: Cool end to summer with perhaps some showers: Feb 25-

This storm season definitely fell far below my expectations this year. La Niña - even though it was a relatively weak one - just didn’t come through in the way I had hoped for central Victoria. Last summer was much more eventful in terms of storms in my area, even though it got off to an absolutely ...
by weathergasm
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:16 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Cool end to summer with perhaps some showers: Feb 25-
Replies: 41
Views: 3723

Re: Cool end to summer with perhaps some showers: Feb 25-

I’m fairly sure this run of insanely boring weather is actually never going to end😆

Time to pick another hobby
by weathergasm
Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:25 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: A long warm to hot spell with the chance of storms or showers: February 16-2?
Replies: 36
Views: 3615

Re: A long warm to hot spell with the chance of storms or showers: February 16-2?

I’m fine with humid weather IF it precedes a thunderstorm, or at least some nice steady rain. Any other time - like today - it just annoys me.
by weathergasm
Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:56 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: A brief hot spell followed by some rain: February 11-13
Replies: 19
Views: 2509

Re: A brief hot spell followed by some rain: February 11-13

Yep, weather looks interminably boring for the next 10ish days. Look on the bright side, no fizzers!

I would hate being a weather nerd based in Melbourne who didn’t have other hobbies😆
by weathergasm
Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:26 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 11353

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Even I concede this was a gigantic dud.
by weathergasm
Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:32 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 15591

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Seeing that thin, broken line of convection on the very back end of the ‘main’ band in western Vic starting to solidify a bit. Models seems to indicate the chance of storms until late in the evening, that could be the beginning of a few sparks for the Melbourne metro area later.
by weathergasm
Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:09 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 15591

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

stevco123 wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:48 pm
What could go wrong?
Great, now you’ve jinxed it😆
by weathergasm
Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:07 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 15591

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Happy to see only a comparatively small downgrade (5mm from yesterday) in the BOM’s latest forecast.

Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow brings to the metro area👌
by weathergasm
Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 15591

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Like all of you I’ll believe 20-40mm for the CBD when I see it. For now I’ll just assume a huge downgrade will be issued at 4:20pm tomorrow, as is the tradition for the Melbourne metro BOM office.
by weathergasm
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:43 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 15591

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Only model not so keen is GFS which splits the rain somewhat between southern NSW and Bass Strait.
That sounds about par for the course lol
by weathergasm
Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 8190

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

Best lightning show for months here in Box Hill. Flashes directly overhead every 20 seconds, lasted a good 20 minutes too.

Now replaced by heavy rain.
by weathergasm
Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:48 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower
Replies: 65
Views: 8190

Re: January 9-16: Warm to hot, with the odd shower

The coldies definitely have a bit of grunt to them here in Box Hill, very rumbly shower of hail just went through.

A fairly substantial looking line winding up from the south on radar too.
by weathergasm
Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:21 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 22502

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Not seeing much of anything in the models for the next 10 days. If you like settled weather for whatever reason, soak it up:)