Search found 137 matches

by weathergasm
Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov
Replies: 104
Views: 4218

Re: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Farmers will not want this Nor fruit growers. Open blue skies. James - think you’ll get your wish tonight. I hope so, are conditions better this time around? very muggy out there atm with blue sky and hot! - am i right that the best storm potential is overnight into the early hours for melb or coul...
by weathergasm
Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov
Replies: 104
Views: 4218

Re: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Skywalker wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:47 pm
Tassiedave wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:49 am
Latest models now suggesting heat will persist from Saturday 28/11 through to Monday 30/11. Could be huge
BOM's latest forecast for Melbourne is for 23 next Saturday with southerlies. :-?
Fantastic, I for one hope the BOM is right👌
by weathergasm
Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov
Replies: 35
Views: 1482

Re: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov

La Niña is established in the Pacific Ocean, all of the required thresholds were reached over a month ago (sea surface temperatures, equatorial cloudiness, trade wind anomalies etc). The impact it will have on Australia has yet to be determined, true. But the main driver of rainfall and moisture in ...
by weathergasm
Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov
Replies: 35
Views: 1482

Re: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov

All I know is that in January this year when the monsoon finally arrived on the Australian mainland it was like a switch had been flicked climate-wise down here in Melbourne. We went from months of extremely windy, hot, desert-like conditions to humid, mild and rainy very quickly. Some good storms a...
by weathergasm
Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov
Replies: 35
Views: 1482

Re: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov

If there’s going to be a storm, looks like it’ll be when most of us are asleep - sometime from 11pm - 4am for the Melbourne metro area.

Nothing severe or high-precipitation, just a thundery, high-based shower.
by weathergasm
Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough and front: 10-12 November
Replies: 63
Views: 3757

Re: Trough and front: 10-12 November

No one should be writing off La Niña before the monsoon trough hits the Australian mainland. That’s when things have much higher potential to get cranking.
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 3613

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Very heavy, convective burst of big fat drops here in Box Hill. Only lasted a few seconds.
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 3613

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Worth keeping an eye on the radar if you’re anywhere east of the city, but otherwise I’m not hopeful for today. Latest sounding for Melbourne doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 3613

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

To me way of thinking, it’s all prelude this time of year. I’m just waiting for the monsoon trough to hit the mainland, that’s when significant tropical moisture is readily advected our way and we can begin tallying some real storm days.
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 3613

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Fairly iffy instability around Melbourne according the most recent Skew-T, I’d expect these thundery showers on the radar to collapse very quickly once the sun gets a bit lower.
by weathergasm
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 3613

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
by weathergasm
Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6659

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

I got 40mm here in Box Hill, which is about 10mm more than I predicted at the start of the thread. It’s lovely to have that drenching overnight rain hitting the roof and windows as you’re sleeping.

Also got one crack of thunder this morning.
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6659

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

It seems to me nothing much is expected to happen until late tonight, when moderate rain should set in for the Melbourne metro area. Seems to mostly clear by Saturday afternoon. I wouldn’t put money on heavy rain or thunderstorms, it’s not that type of system. At least, not for non-elevated central ...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6659

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

I’ve seen some model outputs indicating this event will be focused in the north and east of the state - will assume moderate falls (30mm total for Friday and Saturday?) for Melbourne at this point, the real action looks to be happening elsewhere.
by weathergasm
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6659

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Maybe this is the event that breaks the spell of somewhat (but not entirely) disappointing events for the Melbourne metro area recently. I personally won’t believe it until I see it on radar, but looking forward to see how it pans out.👍
by weathergasm
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5437

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

I get being disappointed by forecasts that don’t turn out the way you want them to, but if you want certainty out of a hobby maybe start growing bonsai or something, because following the weather clearly isn’t for you😂 I myself read these threads to figure out when I should be on heightened alert fo...
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5437

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

The weather is difficult to predict, guy. Particularly the track and speed of low pressure systems. The BOM can’t just look at what the model ensemble is telling them will happen and say “well, the last few times it said Melbourne would receive 25mm it didn’t happen so let’s just cut the forecast ra...
by weathergasm
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5437

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

Substantial downgrade in the BOM’s rainfall forecast for Melbourne tomorrow, now forecasting 3-10mm with ‘moderate’ falls predicted for the outer eastern suburbs. Up until 4:20pm the forecast was for 15-25mm, if I recall correctly. The placement and timing of these lows just haven’t seemed to favour...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5437

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

my point was more that everyone on here gets excited predicting storms/weather that never eventuates, looking at models saying there are (that's pretty much what keeps this page going) Okay, but you have to consider that in the context of Melbourne’s actual climate. If storms happened every time th...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5437

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to! Complaining doesn’t change anything either. Melbourne has a temperate o...