Search found 241 matches

by flyfisher
Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Becoming hot then rain and storms: Dec 13-20
Replies: 64
Views: 4813

Re: Becoming hot then rain and storms: Dec 13-20

Storms disintegrating into the Seabreeze. Seabreeze is not that strong either.
by flyfisher
Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov
Replies: 35
Views: 2771

Re: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov

Also the SAM has gone negative - I noticed the high pressure systems were further north. Hopefully it will switch back to positive by December and pump moisture back into Australia.
by flyfisher
Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov
Replies: 35
Views: 2771

Re: Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov

This is the gap in the rain before the tropics fire up - I have seen it before. It will go wet again. Good opportunity for farmers to get their crops off. Make hay while the sun shines they say. It will be up to 12 months before I am back in Belgrave after the storm/fallen trees destroyed 1/4 of my ...
by flyfisher
Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Windy with a late change: September 2-7
Replies: 65
Views: 5669

Re: Windy with a late change: September 2-7

I am right near the McNicole Road weather station, so it might have recorded the gust. However one side of the valley was devastated but the other was not. That drone footage was over the houses in my street. I was on the ABC news on the Friday night they interviewed me and took footage of both outs...
by flyfisher
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Windy with a late change: September 2-7
Replies: 65
Views: 5669

Re: Windy with a late change: September 2-3

I am not minding the dryer weather right now. Massive tarps the only thing keeping the rain out of what's left of my home. It could be up to six months before we can move back. Much of our possessions still under rubble. There is not a single gum tree left standing that can now fall on our house. So...
by flyfisher
Sun Aug 30, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24
Replies: 163
Views: 15024

Re: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24

My house was partially destroyed by multiple trees. Spent days dealing with the mess but it’s uninhabitable. I was on the news several times over the last few days. My new roof destroyed, right through to the floor boards. We are lucky to be alive, it was that extreme. Facing six months or more rent...
by flyfisher
Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24
Replies: 163
Views: 15024

Re: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24

Yeah, the following runs after I posted that look a little better. SAM is slight positive going forward. The NW cloud band out west is wasted, not connecting to anything.
by flyfisher
Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24
Replies: 163
Views: 15024

Re: Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24

Enjoy this next sequence as the SAM goes positive and high pressure dominance for a few weeks to come.
by flyfisher
Sun Aug 16, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low in the Bight & Rain: Aug 11-15
Replies: 69
Views: 6550

Re: Low in the Bight & Rain: Aug 11-15

Torrential rain again here today, creek is flooded. 10mm
by flyfisher
Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low in the Bight & Rain: Aug 11-15
Replies: 69
Views: 6550

Re: Low in the Bight & Rain: Aug 11-15

Downpour here, right under the little red dot on the radar. Won the weather lottery today. 8mm.
by flyfisher
Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low in the Bight & Rain: Aug 11-15
Replies: 69
Views: 6550

Re: Low in the Bight & Rain: Aug 11-15

If this was a month later say September there would be enough solar heating for a good storm outbreak. I like to use lake Hume as a guide on how the catchments are going, it's currently 52%
by flyfisher
Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?
Replies: 138
Views: 12701

Re: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?

Saw some sleet in Tercoma coming home from work yesterday. Had 3C on the car temp.

It snowed in the Melbourne CBD yesterday - here is the video..

https://twitter.com/i/status/1290523468123930624
by flyfisher
Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?
Replies: 138
Views: 12701

Re: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?

The second low over WA now looks like impacting Victoria, hoping areas in the north of Victoria get a good drink from that.
by flyfisher
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?
Replies: 138
Views: 12701

Re: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?

Incoming by the looks of the radar - hope it holds together, still 1.7C at Ferny Creek.
by flyfisher
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?
Replies: 138
Views: 12701

Re: Cold outbreak 3 August - ?

Looks like Otways rain shadow to me. Too much westerly.
by flyfisher
Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough and east coast low to our north: July 25-29
Replies: 39
Views: 4154

Re: Trough and east coast low to our north: July 25-29

Sorry if off topic. One trigger for change might be the increasing solar input on the Australian continent - it's already getting lighter in the mornings.
by flyfisher
Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Blustery cold fronts: 18-20 July
Replies: 31
Views: 3175

Re: Blustery cold fronts: 18-20 July

Have a look at the current weak incoming low. It's in the bight, goes up into NSW bypassing Vic then heads down the NSW coast as a strong low once it gets on those warm waters. It's like there is a big rock in the road right over Victoria and every system has to go around. Will require something spe...
by flyfisher
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Blustery cold fronts: 18-20 July
Replies: 31
Views: 3175

Re: Blustery cold fronts: 18-20 July

Really goes to show that you need in SE Australia (winter/spring) IOD = negative, which we have and SAM = negative, which we don't have, it's neutral. LA Nina can help with adding in surface pacific moisture but the first two are more important. The jet and LWT in particular have not been in our fav...
by flyfisher
Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Blustery cold fronts: 18-20 July
Replies: 31
Views: 3175

Re: Blustery cold fronts: 18-20 July

Missing just to the south, can hear regular thunder.
by flyfisher
Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Cut-off Low transiting SE Aus 10-13 July
Replies: 43
Views: 4856

Re: Cut-off Low transiting SE Aus 10-13 July

It's the uppers that are causing this - the jet is constantly split over our area. Like a rock in a river. Notice how the cut off low did not dive south back into the westerlies. It's sitting in the area of little stearing, holding back the high over us. But yes annoying as we have got good ocean co...