Storms disintegrating into the Seabreeze. Seabreeze is not that strong either.

Also the SAM has gone negative - I noticed the high pressure systems were further north. Hopefully it will switch back to positive by December and pump moisture back into Australia.

This is the gap in the rain before the tropics fire up - I have seen it before. It will go wet again. Good opportunity for farmers to get their crops off. Make hay while the sun shines they say. It will be up to 12 months before I am back in Belgrave after the storm/fallen trees destroyed 1/4 of my ...

I am right near the McNicole Road weather station, so it might have recorded the gust. However one side of the valley was devastated but the other was not. That drone footage was over the houses in my street. I was on the ABC news on the Friday night they interviewed me and took footage of both outs...

I am not minding the dryer weather right now. Massive tarps the only thing keeping the rain out of what's left of my home. It could be up to six months before we can move back. Much of our possessions still under rubble. There is not a single gum tree left standing that can now fall on our house. So...

My house was partially destroyed by multiple trees. Spent days dealing with the mess but it’s uninhabitable. I was on the news several times over the last few days. My new roof destroyed, right through to the floor boards. We are lucky to be alive, it was that extreme. Facing six months or more rent...

Yeah, the following runs after I posted that look a little better. SAM is slight positive going forward. The NW cloud band out west is wasted, not connecting to anything.

Enjoy this next sequence as the SAM goes positive and high pressure dominance for a few weeks to come.

Torrential rain again here today, creek is flooded. 10mm

Downpour here, right under the little red dot on the radar. Won the weather lottery today. 8mm.

If this was a month later say September there would be enough solar heating for a good storm outbreak. I like to use lake Hume as a guide on how the catchments are going, it's currently 52%

Saw some sleet in Tercoma coming home from work yesterday. Had 3C on the car temp.

It snowed in the Melbourne CBD yesterday - here is the video..

https://twitter.com/i/status/1290523468123930624

The second low over WA now looks like impacting Victoria, hoping areas in the north of Victoria get a good drink from that.

Incoming by the looks of the radar - hope it holds together, still 1.7C at Ferny Creek.

Looks like Otways rain shadow to me. Too much westerly.

Sorry if off topic. One trigger for change might be the increasing solar input on the Australian continent - it's already getting lighter in the mornings.

Have a look at the current weak incoming low. It's in the bight, goes up into NSW bypassing Vic then heads down the NSW coast as a strong low once it gets on those warm waters. It's like there is a big rock in the road right over Victoria and every system has to go around. Will require something spe...

Really goes to show that you need in SE Australia (winter/spring) IOD = negative, which we have and SAM = negative, which we don't have, it's neutral. LA Nina can help with adding in surface pacific moisture but the first two are more important. The jet and LWT in particular have not been in our fav...

Missing just to the south, can hear regular thunder.

It's the uppers that are causing this - the jet is constantly split over our area. Like a rock in a river. Notice how the cut off low did not dive south back into the westerlies. It's sitting in the area of little stearing, holding back the high over us. But yes annoying as we have got good ocean co...