Search found 929 matches

by Sean
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:08 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Long warm and dry spell: April 1-?
Replies: 25
Views: 1109

Re: Long warm and dry spell: April 1-?

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm going to enjoy what is probably summer's last gasp, though I wish there was something rain-wise on the horizon, but this dry spell looks fairly protracted.
by Sean
Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?
Replies: 128
Views: 6038

Re: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?

It's raining quite heavily here despite little on the radar.

Some good totals adding up over Gippy meanwhile.
by Sean
Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:42 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?
Replies: 128
Views: 6038

Re: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?

3mm here. Not exactly a bumper fall by east coast standards this week. Pretty disappointed to be honest. I had little confidence in the models where Vic was concerned this week (and rightly so), but was hoping for something substantial by now (good to see central areas copping a drink though). Monda...
by Sean
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:46 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?
Replies: 128
Views: 6038

Re: Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?

Synoptics charts look better than the models.

It's fun watching Sydney get all the rain :x
by Sean
Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:52 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: March 8-9: Upper trough with some rain?
Replies: 22
Views: 1287

Re: March 8-9: Upper trough with some rain?

February never fails (at being boring), but March seems to be a little more eventful. I wonder if Melbourne's most reliable meteorological pattern/feature of late -- the autumn break -- is kicking in? Generally we have to wait until April it seems, but next weekend is looking decent. Today's rain di...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Got clipped by the storm forming to the SE. Got some great thunderclaps from that. Funnily enough, I've had the best lightning and thunder so far this summer, but the least amount of rain. Usually, it's decent rain but poor lightning and thunder lol. Northern Tas being smashed. EC still confident on...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving... Speed has been the problem all day - we got some absolute dumpers earlier in the day, but they were literally gone again in minutes; ...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

So tell me, why are we supposed to take any notice of any forecasts when they are so inaccurate? ..as are the models I predicted last night this would follow the pattern of every other system this season, and the experts (on other pages) insisted otherwise. It truly gets to the point that I have no...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

^ LOL Yeah, bit of a let down. But to be fair, EC and to a lesser extent, GFS, have been progging this eastern focus for 4 days now. Central areas were always marginal. Edit: we’re even been teased with ANOTHER similar system in the models in 8-10 days time. What’s the bet that one jumps east also? :?
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:46 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

EC has it going until midnight, so I’d wait a few hours before calling it. Bands can spring out of seemingly nowhere.
by Sean
Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

EC and GFS still holding firm re. the eastern focus (Gippsland). 80mm+ more than likely where it does peak.
by Sean
Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 8072

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

EC and GFS are both suggesting that it’ll peak east of Melbourne, so us in metro areas will most likely miss out on the heaviest rain, but we do get some. Both models showing up storms too, but we all know how that’s been going lately...
by Sean
Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:27 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 10993

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

EC isn't progging much else this evening apart from some showers and the odd storm (all of it pretty sparse).

About 29mm here, so on the lower end, but a good drop nonetheless.

Monday's band is favouring eastern Vic and southeast NSW at the moment, but it may drift back as we got closer.
by Sean
Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 10993

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

I’m not worrying just yet. EC is indicating that Friday morning (around 7am-ish) is when it starts cranking for us in central areas.

Will see :|
by Sean
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 10993

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

EC and GFS both seem to have upgraded (pretty much a statewide, all day, all night affair according to EC). Storms look patchy (less so in the west), which is generally the case when imbedded, but both models are showing heavy rain here and there (metro inclusive). Even if I don't get my storm, I'll...
by Sean
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:41 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 77
Views: 6576

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Yeah, I'm not hopeful either. The millenium drought was more fun than this La Nina. I know it skews NSW/QLD in terms of activity, but c'mon. The only interesting weather down here was that thunderstorm the other week that brought some nice rumbles and 10mm of rain. The trough LOOKS like it's going t...
by Sean
Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:59 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 17369

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Subtropical, low pressure systems are keeping the weather quite tame at the moment (how ironic), as they relegate the high pressure ridge low enough to thawt any linkages between cold fronts and the subtropical troughs that are moving around the interior. A front comes close early next week, but loo...
by Sean
Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 17369

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

....and another cell lost to Port Phillip bay. Welp