Search found 816 matches

by Sean
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm to hot with a change: March 17-20
Replies: 20
Views: 1464

Re: Warm to hot with a change: March 17-20

Seeing a shift towards higher pressure now unfortunately. Hopefully it shifts back, but it's looking quite boring for the time being.
by Sean
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 4816

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

Still could see some narrow squalls, but prospects are quickly diminishing :(

Some intense rainfall rates out east.

Next front projected to hit next Wed. Hopefully that one doesn't aslo creep east.
by Sean
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 4816

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

Developing further east dammit, even a tad more than models predicted.

There is another band of cloud on sat images, so something could still develop, but it might also favour the east :|
by Sean
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 4816

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

Still wants to peak east of metro, with the heaviest rain ending up over the foothills and down towards Traralgon.

Looks to arrive around 3-4ish now (in Melb).

Again, hopefully we get some heavy rain further west. Could get squally.
by Sean
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 4816

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

As mentioned by others, the front is tending to peak in east central areas towards the yarra ranges, with a band of rain pushing through between 5-7pm on Friday in metro areas. But it could peak a bit further west as we saw with the last event. Progs showing heavy rain associated, but is a bit patch...
by Sean
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 4816

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

The front is waxing and waning on the charts, but the prospect of one happening at all is holding.

Not sure on infeed. That high in the bight is pretty strong.
by Sean
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Fairly impressed by the euro which pretty much had this outcome progged back when Gordo started this thread, with everywhere bar the southwest seeing good falls. It even had less emphasis on the northeast and more on the west.

Signs of another decent system emerging in 8 or so days.
by Sean
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Dun struck the big 5-0 :o

GFS just about nailed it.
by Sean
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:30 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

GFS 6Z got falls over 100mm next 24 hours in parts of east central including Melbourne’s outer northeast and Yarra Valley :o 3mm here so far. DP is now up to 14C so getting muggy. GFS is way overestimating rain totals. ICON a more realistic 15mm predicted tonight for here. Only 5mm in gauge atm. 25...
by Sean
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Surprised the BOM doesn’t have a heavy rain advisory for north central or central...

To be fair though, the last time the did, it didn’t eventuate :D
by Sean
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Just 4mm so far. Hopefully more but the radar doesn't look great atm. The bulk of the moisture is still creeping down over NSW and QLD. Hopefully we see some rapid development in the in the next few hours. The infeed is two pronged, with moisture streaming in from the Arafura sea and coral sea. Pot...
by Sean
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

BOM not interested at all... "Chance of showers" with a projected 2-6mm tomorrow (in Mel).

Fair bit of disagreement regarding the charts and official forecasts :?
by Sean
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Ya, GFS looking a lot better, particularly in central and metro areas, with heavy rain projected to start moving through around midnight.

Won't hold my breath though.
by Sean
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Precip values are shooting up, with moisture pouring over NSW. Some inland regions are already nudging 100mm :o
by Sean
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

It's looking like a historic event in some parts, but we'll have a better idea tomorrow morning. We've seen systems like this collapse before. I'm still curious as to south of the range... The alps often shred rain bearing systems that descend from the north, but (some) models show heavy rain pushin...
by Sean
Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Metro still on the edge. Thursday morning is tipped to see the bulk of what does fall.

Would like to see it edge west, as we'd probably see our monthly average in a single day, but it wants to favour the NE, as it's been creeping that way on the charts for days now.
by Sean
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Anyway, some on topic, good news: the projected rain has shifted west slightly. A big rain event of some sort is almost locked in, but where it eventuates still seems all over the place regarding the models. NSW tends to come out on top, but Vic sees decent periods of rain Wed into Thur. Will be int...
by Sean
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Lol! One below average summer month means nothing. Very true, but no doubt our seasons are getting more and more distorted however. The only reason why we were only JUST above the average for summer is because of three or four spike days above 40 degrees the whole season. It's very easy to go back ...
by Sean
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Oh well, looks like "summer" is over ahead of the solstice this year. Pretty crappy season it was, with hardly any prolonged heat and February behaving more like late March/early April. The lack of global warming protestors in the city shows it must have indeed been a cool one 🤣🤣🤣 Was it though? Wa...
by Sean
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 14641

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

The heaviest rain seems to be pulling east, with metro areas now borderline.

Still time for it to shift back.