Search found 891 matches

by Sean
Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov
Replies: 102
Views: 4058

Re: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

38mm... Wtf.

Agreed, GFS bombed hard. Wasn't expecting much given how disinterested it was and figured EC was going ham for no reason again, but damn. Incredible fall throughout much of the metro.
by Sean
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov
Replies: 102
Views: 4058

Re: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Slipping north of here! :(
by Sean
Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov
Replies: 102
Views: 4058

Re: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Waiting and hoping here... the lines of storms seem to be shifting into an area of rain, so I think it's going to be light on thunder.

EC going for thundery rain into the early hours. GFS showing some rain, but not interested in thunder
by Sean
Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov
Replies: 102
Views: 4058

Re: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Farmers will not want this Nor fruit growers. Open blue skies. James - think you’ll get your wish tonight. I hope so, are conditions better this time around? very muggy out there atm with blue sky and hot! - am i right that the best storm potential is overnight into the early hours for melb or coul...
by Sean
Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov
Replies: 102
Views: 4058

Re: Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

This event is looking less stormy and more rainy by the day, which will probably mean more people get some rain, however rain totals will be lower on the whole (i.e. less pockets of 30mm plus).

My green lawn is beginning to go brown. Was nice while it lasted :(
by Sean
Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough and front: 10-12 November
Replies: 63
Views: 3724

Re: Trough and front: 10-12 November

Stop the presses.

I've heard a distant rumble of thunder and have picked up .5mm 😅
by Sean
Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough and front: 10-12 November
Replies: 63
Views: 3724

Re: Trough and front: 10-12 November

Of course, it’s heavily overcast... :x
by Sean
Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough and front: 10-12 November
Replies: 63
Views: 3724

Re: Trough and front: 10-12 November

Progs trending better for storms. Depending on clear skies of course :D BOM going for 'partly cloudy', so we'll see. Will definitely impact severity, but it will be quite warm. It *might* be our first case of extensive, severe storms so far this season. Severe rainwise hopefully, because as much as...
by Sean
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough and front: 10-12 November
Replies: 63
Views: 3724

Re: Trough and front: 10-12 November

QLD and NSW have been having a wild couple of weeks, most likely intensified by la nina, both inland and coastally. But yeah, down in Vic, it's marginal at best in terms of impact so far, and I would put that down to bad luck to be honest, as the available moisture just hasn't been linking up with t...
by Sean
Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm to hot followed by a strong cold front: Nov 2-5
Replies: 22
Views: 1329

Re: Warm to hot followed by a strong cold front: Nov 2-5

Wed still holding. Problem is, it looks like a morning event, which limits storm potential. Would like to see it shift towards the afternoon. Of course, we're still a week out, which means it could disappear all together, but the potential remains.
by Sean
Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm to hot followed by a strong cold front: Nov 2-5
Replies: 22
Views: 1329

Re: Warm to hot followed by a strong cold front: Nov 2-5

5mm here. We only had about 1mm with the front then heavy drizzle and fog set in here as well. Might be a bit more to come looking at the radar. Nice to have the cool weather back! I miss the warmth haha! I love bright sunny days with beach warmth and little wind. Melbourne looks stunning on those ...
by Sean
Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:31 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm to hot followed by a strong cold front: Nov 2-5
Replies: 22
Views: 1329

Re: Warm to hot followed by a strong cold front: Nov 2-5

Incidentally, La Nina has really got cranking in the Pacific Ocean. Some crazy cold sea surface temps emerging in the Central Pacific Ocean. It's going to be a bonkers summer I suspect. The atmosphere hasn't responded much yet, but when it does it could get very interesting... That's the big questi...
by Sean
Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 3584

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

The next 7 days look mostly uneventful and boring, though we get a decent spurt of beach weather.
by Sean
Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6607

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

27mm all up. Not bad. In line with GFS. EC dropped the ball. Still waiting on that thunderstorm :(
by Sean
Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6607

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

I’ve seen some model outputs indicating this event will be focused in the north and east of the state - will assume moderate falls (30mm total for Friday and Saturday?) for Melbourne at this point, the real action looks to be happening elsewhere. Pretty much. GFS has now shifted the heavy rain NE (...
by Sean
Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6607

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

This is nothing like 2010/11. In that event, when 5mm was forecat, you could count on at least 25mm. Maybe in southern Vic, but inland QLD and NSW are doing well. Plus, it’s only been an ‘official’ La Niña for a few weeks. By midsummer, we might be under water, who knows... La Niña has a strong ass...
by Sean
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 6607

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

Looking good, but the heaviest rain is moving all over the place... GFS -- as of now -- has storms (in the metro) late afternoon/early evening on Friday, with heavy rainfall charging through Melbourne very early Saturday morning. However, the storms are (again) more likely north of the range. Also, ...
by Sean
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5409

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

I get being disappointed by forecasts that don’t turn out the way you want them to, but if you want certainty out of a hobby maybe start growing bonsai or something, because following the weather clearly isn’t for you😂 I myself read these threads to figure out when I should be on heightened alert f...
by Sean
Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5409

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

another fail in terms of predictions, i had to laugh at the storm charts being shown on various weather groups showing severe storms for the east of Melbourne, lo and behold this afternoon it was changed to further east :P As I said earlier I am not sure why people still feel these predictions are ...
by Sean
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 5409

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to! Storms are like meringues... very finickity. If one ingredient/conditio...