Search found 825 matches

by Sean
Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG
Replies: 67
Views: 3266

Re: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG

-1c forecast min in Frankston, which is generally unheard of, though you don't have to travel far inland to enjoy (or loath) the frosts.

Some activity wed onwards, but not quite the winter system we're waiting for. Still a couple of months to go, so won't get too despondent just yet.
by Sean
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG
Replies: 67
Views: 3266

Re: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG

7-day synoptics looking far more dynamic than what we've seen so far this winter. Expect more activity if this is, indeed, a breakdown in the current pattern given the relatively warm waters
by Sean
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG
Replies: 67
Views: 3266

Re: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG

This narrow little band pushing through now is bearing some heavy rainfall rates. Seemed to come out of nowhere
by Sean
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG
Replies: 67
Views: 3266

Re: Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG

Looks like the SAM is going negative. Not reflected in the charts yet but hope that changes. Of course even with a negative SAM we can still get unlucky on where the LWT positions it'self. Yes, which will hopefully mean we get some interesting weather towards mid July and into August. Been a boring...
by Sean
Sun May 03, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April
Replies: 162
Views: 9487

Re: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April

From driest start to wettest start.. extraordinary. Things are a bit soggy around here, but the sandy soils will suck it all up no problems. Few fronts showing up, but high pressure looks to relegate them to tas. Warm seas out west, but again, high pressure in the way. Could be a fun winter dependin...
by Sean
Fri May 01, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April
Replies: 162
Views: 9487

Re: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April

Only a few mm so far today and a lot of wind. Can't have it all I suppose

Did get that very wet April I was hoping for at least
by Sean
Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April
Replies: 162
Views: 9487

Re: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April

Radar beginning to look impressive in metro areas, but will it deliver? The rain has been light all day. Haven't even hit 10mm yet. Hopefully this next blob delivers.
by Sean
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April
Replies: 162
Views: 9487

Re: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April

The heaviest rain is looking a little more patchy tonight. There should still be some decent accumulations as it unfolds, but the higher totals look more confined to the usual elevated spots. Perfect sleeping temps at the moment, the sweet spot between summer and winter
by Sean
Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April
Replies: 162
Views: 9487

Re: Series of cold fronts 23-30 April

12mm overnight, crazy good start to the year. Models still looking good regarding the week ahead, albeit a little less exciting. Nonstop showers from wed onwards.

I hope people enjoy gloomy weather!
by Sean
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm to hot with a change: March 17-20
Replies: 20
Views: 3289

Re: Warm to hot with a change: March 17-20

Seeing a shift towards higher pressure now unfortunately. Hopefully it shifts back, but it's looking quite boring for the time being.
by Sean
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 7974

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

Still could see some narrow squalls, but prospects are quickly diminishing :(

Some intense rainfall rates out east.

Next front projected to hit next Wed. Hopefully that one doesn't aslo creep east.
by Sean
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 7974

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

Developing further east dammit, even a tad more than models predicted.

There is another band of cloud on sat images, so something could still develop, but it might also favour the east :|
by Sean
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 7974

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

Still wants to peak east of metro, with the heaviest rain ending up over the foothills and down towards Traralgon.

Looks to arrive around 3-4ish now (in Melb).

Again, hopefully we get some heavy rain further west. Could get squally.
by Sean
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 7974

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

As mentioned by others, the front is tending to peak in east central areas towards the yarra ranges, with a band of rain pushing through between 5-7pm on Friday in metro areas. But it could peak a bit further west as we saw with the last event. Progs showing heavy rain associated, but is a bit patch...
by Sean
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March
Replies: 27
Views: 7974

Re: Strong front preceding possible ECL 13-15 March

The front is waxing and waning on the charts, but the prospect of one happening at all is holding.

Not sure on infeed. That high in the bight is pretty strong.
by Sean
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 22323

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Fairly impressed by the euro which pretty much had this outcome progged back when Gordo started this thread, with everywhere bar the southwest seeing good falls. It even had less emphasis on the northeast and more on the west.

Signs of another decent system emerging in 8 or so days.
by Sean
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 22323

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Dun struck the big 5-0 :o

GFS just about nailed it.
by Sean
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:30 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 22323

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

GFS 6Z got falls over 100mm next 24 hours in parts of east central including Melbourne’s outer northeast and Yarra Valley :o 3mm here so far. DP is now up to 14C so getting muggy. GFS is way overestimating rain totals. ICON a more realistic 15mm predicted tonight for here. Only 5mm in gauge atm. 25...
by Sean
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 22323

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Surprised the BOM doesn’t have a heavy rain advisory for north central or central...

To be fair though, the last time the did, it didn’t eventuate :D
by Sean
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 22323

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Just 4mm so far. Hopefully more but the radar doesn't look great atm. The bulk of the moisture is still creeping down over NSW and QLD. Hopefully we see some rapid development in the in the next few hours. The infeed is two pronged, with moisture streaming in from the Arafura sea and coral sea. Pot...