Search found 925 matches

by Sean
Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:52 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: March 8-9: Upper trough with some rain?
Replies: 15
Views: 517

Re: March 8-9: Upper trough with some rain?

February never fails (at being boring), but March seems to be a little more eventful. I wonder if Melbourne's most reliable meteorological pattern/feature of late -- the autumn break -- is kicking in? Generally we have to wait until April it seems, but next weekend is looking decent. Today's rain di...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Got clipped by the storm forming to the SE. Got some great thunderclaps from that. Funnily enough, I've had the best lightning and thunder so far this summer, but the least amount of rain. Usually, it's decent rain but poor lightning and thunder lol. Northern Tas being smashed. EC still confident on...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving... Speed has been the problem all day - we got some absolute dumpers earlier in the day, but they were literally gone again in minutes; ...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

So tell me, why are we supposed to take any notice of any forecasts when they are so inaccurate? ..as are the models I predicted last night this would follow the pattern of every other system this season, and the experts (on other pages) insisted otherwise. It truly gets to the point that I have no...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving...
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

^ LOL Yeah, bit of a let down. But to be fair, EC and to a lesser extent, GFS, have been progging this eastern focus for 4 days now. Central areas were always marginal. Edit: we’re even been teased with ANOTHER similar system in the models in 8-10 days time. What’s the bet that one jumps east also? :?
by Sean
Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:46 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

EC has it going until midnight, so I’d wait a few hours before calling it. Bands can spring out of seemingly nowhere.
by Sean
Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

EC and GFS still holding firm re. the eastern focus (Gippsland). 80mm+ more than likely where it does peak.
by Sean
Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7
Replies: 96
Views: 6725

Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

EC and GFS are both suggesting that it’ll peak east of Melbourne, so us in metro areas will most likely miss out on the heaviest rain, but we do get some. Both models showing up storms too, but we all know how that’s been going lately...
by Sean
Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:27 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 9078

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

EC isn't progging much else this evening apart from some showers and the odd storm (all of it pretty sparse).

About 29mm here, so on the lower end, but a good drop nonetheless.

Monday's band is favouring eastern Vic and southeast NSW at the moment, but it may drift back as we got closer.
by Sean
Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 9078

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

I’m not worrying just yet. EC is indicating that Friday morning (around 7am-ish) is when it starts cranking for us in central areas.

Will see :|
by Sean
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31
Replies: 155
Views: 9078

Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

EC and GFS both seem to have upgraded (pretty much a statewide, all day, all night affair according to EC). Storms look patchy (less so in the west), which is generally the case when imbedded, but both models are showing heavy rain here and there (metro inclusive). Even if I don't get my storm, I'll...
by Sean
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:41 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30
Replies: 77
Views: 5620

Re: Return of heat followed by possible rain and storms: January 20-30

Yeah, I'm not hopeful either. The millenium drought was more fun than this La Nina. I know it skews NSW/QLD in terms of activity, but c'mon. The only interesting weather down here was that thunderstorm the other week that brought some nice rumbles and 10mm of rain. The trough LOOKS like it's going t...
by Sean
Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:59 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 15291

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Subtropical, low pressure systems are keeping the weather quite tame at the moment (how ironic), as they relegate the high pressure ridge low enough to thawt any linkages between cold fronts and the subtropical troughs that are moving around the interior. A front comes close early next week, but loo...
by Sean
Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:05 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 15291

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

....and another cell lost to Port Phillip bay. Welp
by Sean
Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:12 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 15291

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

There is a line of cells popping up between Elaine and Geelong, which might build into a line of thunderstorms. Look like there's an E/NE focus to them, so may miss here if it does develop.

Very warm, steamy and sunny, so good conditions.
by Sean
Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 15291

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Trough has been clinging to the west for the last couple of days unfortunately, then wizzes past tomorrow, meaning that timing will be off. Hopefully it decides to spurn the models and plant itself in central areas so we can make the most of daytime heat. What an abysmal storm season for SE Melbourn...
by Sean
Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:20 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 15291

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Feel the sea breeze kicking in now
by Sean
Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??
Replies: 207
Views: 15291

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

I think it's going to be a very frustrating couple of days for many... EC is favouring inland regions. Also, they look to be very slow moving if not stationary (good for chasers, but not for those of us waiting for them to pass over). Seabreeze will probably kick into gear given that the highs are q...