Search found 1660 matches

by Petros
Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 53280

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Interesting Crickey/Didg

The lack of sub polar jet under Aus is a very pertinent observation imo.
by Petros
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 53280

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Welcome BD7! Good topic and always plenty going on with the climate drivers. Here is a little something to get things going. Lower Stratospheric polar vortex is splitting in 2 from a sudden stratospheric warming event during June. Tropopause is lowering and the jet is about to cut loose equatorward...
by Petros
Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:12 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

The ridiculous pattern continues. BOM going with the EC progs, i.e. not keen on rainfall, despite a decent upper low and cold pool above more unseasonally high winter temps at the surface. GFS progging LIs -1 to -2 through the western and central parts of the state tomorrow with total-total values ...
by Petros
Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:53 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Rain has set in here for past 10 minutes.
by Petros
Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:39 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

Amazing variance between the models, all agree the low out W will weaken and cross C or maybe N Vic, but what happens thereafter is going to be interesting - for my two bobs, a decent ECL affecting C NSW coast again (that will be unwelcome up that way). :?: ... mind you AccR's tip for our area would...
by Petros
Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:34 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Another unseasonably warm day here AGAIN! 6.4 - 23.8C, baro stuck at 1020 as it basically has been all week and only 0.5mm from "warm" overnight shower mid week. Havent had wind or a day below 19C for 6 days!!
by Petros
Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:37 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats
Replies: 387
Views: 594227

Re: AWF Rainfall Details - record your updated info here

Lily, at 60+mm here last month, why isnt my location dot green (versus the light blue indicated)? ;)
by Petros
Thu Aug 04, 2011 7:08 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

OK, I'll give EC a go...... (getting quite excited out this way actually). Theres an ECL a-brewin'.
Image
by Petros
Thu Aug 04, 2011 7:04 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Amazingly mild here today, 13.1 to 26.1C (havent looked at my records but I'm sure I've never seen this high a temp early August), the baro stuck around 1019 hPa for days now. So mild outside here (18C), but unlike Proteous, I've found a way to cope, beer and a steak sizzling on the BBQ!!! :D Pity t...
by Petros
Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:13 pm
Forum: General Weather Archives
Topic: Melbourne dams
Replies: 49
Views: 22965

Re: Melbourne dams

Agree Mick, and as the economic pain decends on ordinary Vics over the lead up to Christmas, be prepared for a big public backlash against the cost blow-outs at the Desal project which surprisingly are kept under wraps at the moment (but will no doubt emerge) as they desparately try to get the proje...
by Petros
Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:59 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

The model consensus is a narrow edge to the colder/drier outcome for this weekends potential ECL, for balance heres the scabiest outcome for Vic next Sunday (AccR which pushes the action to the NE)... http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c158/Petros127/ACCESSG070811a.png As usual I could model-shop and...
by Petros
Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:50 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

.........It is fine to match an extreme recorded on one or two occasions in the past, it is something else to see these record temps recorded and smashed so many times in such a short period. If you look through the records you will never find a time where more record temps and warm/hot spells have...
by Petros
Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:02 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

How would a return to La Nina end Sept effect our warm spring prognostations?
by Petros
Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:52 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Nice calm and mild sunny day here 22.8C with a non chilly 9.1C start. We did get 0.5mm last night from one of the fronts that this 8 day thread prognosed.
by Petros
Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:45 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

No update on AccG or EC for me yet, but TWC, CMC and GFS are trapping the low arriving from the bight on Friday between a high pressure cell sausaging in under Tassie and a blocking high in the Tasman. This scenario delivers cold air aloft and a NNE tropical infeed - good ingredients for an ECL. Her...
by Petros
Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:22 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

An early spring day here, 22.8C, baro steady on 1028hPa and a late arvo cloud bank tried but failed to deliver any moisture to the ground. Mowed the lawns and can definitely say that we have plenty of soil moisture, so any rain next weekend could leave us fairly muddy. But as posted before, some pad...
by Petros
Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:12 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

A large blocking high looks to fend off any further cold fronts across Vic through the later part of this week. But the models are grappling with what to make of the low pressure system stuck in the bight during the same period, theres plenty of cold air with this system but when it arrives will the...
by Petros
Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:09 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Mild northerly here, pushing 22C sunny all day but light cloud starting to loom out to the W.
by Petros
Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:02 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

The end of this thread date-range is starting to interest us out Gippy way (and no doubt skifield operators).. heres CMC for end of next week at this stage....Image
by Petros
Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:09 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011
Replies: 500
Views: 46086

Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

1mm later last evening, then a lovely sunny day with light northerly at times 19C, baro steady at 1018 hPa. [edit] - sorry Lily, had a "boys" look for the monthly rain reporting thread and couldnt find it, if you see this Maffra has had 64.5mm this month and 389.5mm ytd. Round about our long term av...