Off the record ACCESS G picked up this cold out break for SE OZ ahead of the other models

The models are far too jumpy at the moment ACCESS G does not want a bar of it while EC is all over it and GFS has now come on board too, I have kept an eye on the models last few months and it is actually ACCESS G that is picking up systems ahead of EC and GFS more often than not it tends to be more...

ACCESS has been the best of the models last two days it was also the closest yesterday in predicting the cooler day only 27.8 in the end when other models and BOM had 32-33. The stronger & cooler southerly will move up the bay next 3 to 5 hours

We can forget about 36c at OP today at this rate may even struggle to get to 30c, shallow change which wasn't picked up by the models accept ACCESS which only had mid 20's temps at the top end of the bay today and near Olympic park has come through keeping the northerlies more inland.

Changing the subject for a bit.. How are ppls memories?? 10 years ago tonight was the big cut off low flooding/storms/snow/rain event which impacted Victoria and Melbourne saw gale force to storm force winds during the night out of the south and 120mm (highest rainfall ever in 24 hrs) as the low mov...

If anyone is in Melbourne go outside at the moment and check the instability cumulous deck streaming in from the North. Haven't had any of this cloud all day across most of Melbourne then suddenly bang its appeared tonight... I'm going to stick my foot out and say few showers and maybe even a rumble...

Get ready Western Victoria, this will be the best rain in some parts in 6 months! Wimmera will also do well, the Mallee, most northern areas and northern slopes, Central areas may also do fairly well if the winds come out of the north east rather than north around the low & Melb and south central pa...

I'm expecting the west and Wimmera to do the best in this system both area have suffered from the big dry the most in Victoria the past 9 to 12 months so badly needed down there! Northern slopes will also do well as well as the north east. Expecting no more than 10mm here which will make it 15mm for...

Showers and storms have developed through the Grampians the past hour or so and also developing showers between Geelong and Ballarat, Melbourne may still see some action overnight and morning

From what I can tell has 40 to 70mm from Thursday to Saturday for Melbourne

And latest EC throws it slightly further west

StratoBendigo I was thinking more March 1983 at the back of the 1982/83 El Nino very similar set up if the models are correct. In recent times it also looks like a similar set up to January 2007, January 2011 systems and late Feb/early March system of 2012 when Essendon FC went to Wangaratta by bus ...

I'm expecting little between now and rest of the month all the signs are pointing to a dry finish to the year now, hope I'm wrong but will be lucky to get 5mm the next fortnight here.

Just in.. Interesting forecast for Central Dist for this evening Forecast for the rest of Sunday Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Showers heavy at times near the coast and in the east early this evening. Winds southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h. BOM must be thinking that blob east of Melb might edge b...

stevco123 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:56 am wrote:

stevco123 wrote:I reckon it will still be mainly dry today and tomorrow for the metro area.

Stevco I told you mate just got to have some faith

Beautiful steady rain here and all of Melbourne and central and eastern Vic, to be honest can't see this letting up until late in the day or evening.

Wangaratta blanked by hail as well! And have the pics up to show it. If you like to keep up to date with the storms not only just in Victoria but NSW and Qld as well come and like my weather page as we try and bring the latest of what is happening around the Country. Cheers John. https://www.faceboo...

2 different topics, I was replying to what you said and then changed the subject and pointed out that Cerberus has had a lot of rain in such a short amount of time.

I highly doubt that Stevco.

20mm since 9am in Cerberus!

AS ILS mentioned last night EC predicted this, only model that had "heavy rain" (which means storms usually) in the early hours for Melbourne. Models have really struggled with this system. Most of the rain was meant to be north of us today but we have rain wrapping to the south of us currently. Its...

I think the forecast yesterday was good, it barely rained here yesterday and same goes for all of the northern suburbs so using the word chance seemed fair in my book.

0mm here from this system. Hopefully Monday provided a little better.